The paradox of India’s global rise, its regional decline 

1. Driving Forces Behind India's Global Ascendancy

Economic and Military Momentum

Over the past two decades, India has witnessed a remarkable surge in aggregate power, underscored by robust economic expansion, bolstered military capabilities, and a burgeoning young demographic. This ascent is unmistakable, evident in India's integration into key global fora such as the G-20, participation as an invitee in G-7 meetings, and active involvement in multilateral platforms like the Quad, BRICS, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Despite its absence from the United Nations Security Council, India's global significance is unmistakable.

Peer Acknowledgment and Global Presence

Apart from notable exceptions such as China, India increasingly garners acknowledgement and accommodation from its peers regarding its claim to global significance. This recognition is particularly pronounced in the Indo-Pacific region, where India's strategic centrality contributes to global strategic stability. India's pivotal geographic and strategic positioning in this theatre amplifies its influence on the global stage.

Challenges and Erosion of Regional Influence

Paradoxically, India's regional clout faces erosion amidst the ascendancy of China. As China consolidates its influence across South Asia and beyond, India finds its relative power diminishing, posing a challenge to its traditional hegemonic role in the region.

India's once-dominant position in South Asia is undergoing a significant transformation in the face of evolving geopolitical dynamics. Other regional actors increasingly assert their influence, necessitating a recalibration of India's regional strategy to navigate emerging challenges and preserve its relevance in the changing regional landscape.

India's global ascent is juxtaposed with a disconcerting decline in its regional influence, particularly evident in South Asia. While India's power and sway in the region during the Cold War era contrast starkly with China's contemporary dominance, India's relative clout has dwindled significantly over time. This decline, relative rather than absolute, is precipitated by an array of extraneous factors, the ramifications of which extend to India's global standing.

The Interplay of Global Rise and Regional Decline

The withdrawal of American influence from the region, coupled with China's strategic expansion, presents a dual challenge for India. While the vacuum created by the U.S. retreat disadvantages India regionally, it paradoxically underscores India's global significance, prompting efforts by the U.S. and its allies to bolster India as a counterweight to Chinese influence.

In the Indo-Pacific arena, burgeoning interest in the region amplifies India's global prominence as a pivotal player. However, India's unwavering focus on the Indo-Pacific's great power dynamics risks diluting its attention and influence in its continental neighbourhood, potentially stretching its resources thin.

Roots of Global Rise vs. Regional Decline

India's global ascent, fueled by absolute power growth and strategic alignments with leading global powers, stands in stark contrast to its regional decline, shaped by comparative power dynamics and the strategic choices of smaller regional players. Overlooking the nuanced balancing acts of these smaller regional actors in favour of focusing solely on great power dynamics risks undermining efforts to address India's regional challenges effectively.

3. Imperatives for India's Regional Strategy

India finds itself in a paradox where its historical ascent in power is juxtaposed with a relative decline vis-à-vis China, primarily attributed to China's unprecedented rise. This shifting dynamic has significant implications for India's regional influence, particularly in South Asia, where China's emergence as a formidable power has altered the regional balance, prompting smaller neighbouring states to recalibrate their strategies.

Reassessing Regional Dynamics

To effectively address this challenge, India must acknowledge and adapt to the transformed geopolitical landscape of the region, marked by China's ascendancy and evolving regional dynamics. Denying the existence of this shifting paradigm will only exacerbate India's predicament.

Rather than engaging in a futile attempt to match China's prowess in every aspect, India should capitalize on its inherent strengths and historical ties within the region. Embracing its rich Buddhist heritage, for instance, could serve as a potent tool for fostering closer ties and countering China's influence.

Maritime Advantage and Indo-Pacific Engagement

India's maritime domain presents a wealth of opportunities for strategic engagement and cooperation. By leveraging its maritime advantages, India can offset some of the challenges posed by its continental strategy. Engaging smaller South Asian neighbours in Indo-Pacific dialogues and initiatives can facilitate their integration into India-led regional strategies, effectively diminishing their reliance on China.

Collaboration with strategic partners such as the United States, Japan, Australia, and the European Union offers a platform for expanding India's influence in the Indo-Pacific. By actively involving neighbouring states like Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and Bangladesh in Indo-Pacific initiatives, India can counterbalance China's regional dominance and foster a collective regional identity.

Embracing Non-Centric Perspectives

India's evolving regional strategy demonstrates a willingness to engage with external actors in addressing common challenges. By forging partnerships with like-minded stakeholders in the Indian Ocean and South Asia, India can navigate the complexities arising from its regional decline more effectively.

To counterbalance its regional decline and preserve influence, New Delhi must harness its soft power assets effectively. Encouraging informal interactions between political and civil society figures from India and other South Asian nations can foster mutual understanding and cooperation. Informal conflict resolution mechanisms should be promoted, particularly in scenarios where direct state intervention is not feasible, as exemplified by the situation in Myanmar.

Addressing the Global-Regional Paradox

The dichotomy between India's ascent on the global stage and its receding influence in the immediate neighbourhood poses critical questions regarding its broader international ambitions. The ability to maintain primacy in its periphery is inherently linked to India's prospects of emerging as a pivotal player in global politics. Failure to assert dominance in regional affairs could undermine India's credibility and effectiveness on the international stage.

5.  Indian Foreign Policy

India's foreign policy has undergone significant evolution since gaining independence in 1947. Rooted in principles of non-alignment and sovereignty, India's early foreign policy sought to assert independence from Cold War power blocs while championing decolonization and promoting global peace.

Foundational Principles

India's foreign policy is guided by several core principles, including

1. India maintains a stance of non-alignment, refusing to align with any major power blocs or alliances.
2. India upholds the principle of sovereignty, asserting its right to independent decision-making and non-interference in the internal affairs of other nations.
3. India promotes peaceful coexistence and seeks to resolve disputes through dialogue and diplomacy.
4. India emphasizes engagement in multilateral forums to address global challenges and advance its interests on the world stage.

Regional Priorities

In its immediate neighbourhood, India seeks to maintain stability, promote economic cooperation, and counter security threats. Key regional priorities include:

1. India aims to foster close ties with its South Asian neighbours while addressing challenges such as terrorism, border disputes, and economic development.
2. India seeks to enhance maritime security and economic cooperation in the IOR, safeguarding vital sea lanes of communication and countering maritime threats.

Global Engagement

India's foreign policy extends beyond its immediate region to encompass global engagement. Key aspects of India's global engagement include:

1. India has forged strategic partnerships with countries around the world, including the United States, Russia, Japan, and European nations, to advance mutual interests in areas such as security, trade, and technology.
2. India pursues economic diplomacy to promote trade, investment, and technology transfer, leveraging its growing economic prowess and emerging market status.
3. India utilizes soft power tools such as cultural diplomacy, educational exchanges, and development assistance to enhance its global influence and strengthen international ties.

Challenges and Opportunities

India's foreign policy faces numerous challenges, including regional security threats, geopolitical competition, and economic vulnerabilities. However, India also possesses significant opportunities for enhancing its global standing, including its demographic dividend, growing economy, and strategic partnerships.

6. South Asia

South Asia, comprising eight countries, is a region of diverse cultures, languages, and religions. It includes Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. The region is characterized by its rich history, economic disparities, and geopolitical complexities.

Key Dynamics of South Asia

1.  South Asia has a history of ancient civilizations, cultural exchanges, and colonial legacies that continue to influence contemporary geopolitics. Historical conflicts and territorial disputes shape interstate relations in the region.
2. South Asia is home to a mix of developing and emerging economies, with varying levels of economic development and industrialization. The region faces challenges such as poverty, inequality, and unemployment, alongside opportunities for growth and investment.
3. South Asia grapples with security threats, including terrorism, insurgency, and interstate conflicts. Issues like cross-border terrorism, nuclear proliferation, and territorial disputes contribute to regional tensions and instability.
4. Major powers, including the United States, China, and Russia, vie for influence in South Asia, leveraging economic, diplomatic, and military means. Geopolitical rivalries and strategic interests shape alliances and partnerships in the region.

India's Role in South Asia

1.  India, as the largest and most populous country in South Asia, holds significant influence over its neighbours. It plays a pivotal role in shaping regional dynamics through diplomatic, economic, and military means.
2. India's growing economy and market potential make it an economic powerhouse in South Asia. It serves as a key trading partner and investment destination for neighbouring countries, driving regional economic integration and development.
3. India plays a vital role in ensuring security and stability in South Asia. It cooperates with neighbouring countries on counterterrorism efforts, defence cooperation, and disaster relief, contributing to regional peace and security.
4. India's cultural heritage, including its music, art, cuisine, and traditions, exerts a soft power influence in South Asia. Cultural exchanges and people-to-people ties strengthen India's bonds with its neighbours, fostering goodwill and cooperation.

Challenges and Opportunities

1. South Asia faces persistent interstate conflicts and territorial disputes, hindering regional cooperation and integration. Resolving these conflicts is essential for promoting peace and stability in the region.
2. Economic disparities within South Asia pose challenges to regional development and cooperation. Bridging the gap between affluent and less-developed countries is crucial for fostering inclusive growth and reducing poverty.
3. Geopolitical competition between major powers, particularly China and India, complicates regional dynamics and security arrangements. Balancing strategic interests while promoting cooperation is key to managing these rivalries.
4. Enhancing multilateral cooperation through organizations like SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) and BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) offers opportunities for addressing common challenges and promoting regional integration.