NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION (NDC)
- A Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) is a country's self-defined climate action plan under the Paris Agreement (2015), outlining its commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change
- Each NDC typically covers a country's targets for reducing emissions (e.g., cutting CO₂ by X% by 2030), the sectors it will focus on (energy, transport, agriculture, etc.), adaptation strategies to deal with climate impacts, and sometimes finance, technology, and capacity-building needs
- Countries submit their NDCs to the UNFCCC (UN Framework Convention on Climate Change). There is no single global template — each country determines its own goals based on its capabilities and national circumstances
- NDCs are the core mechanism through which the Paris Agreement's goal — limiting global warming to 1.5–2°C above pre-industrial levels — is expected to be achieved. Collectively, the ambition of all NDCs determines whether the world stays on track
- Under the Paris Agreement, all participating nations are required to submit their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) at regular intervals.
- These are voluntary climate commitments that outline how each country plans to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels and contribute to global climate goals.
- India’s earlier NDC, submitted in August 2022, included commitments to achieve 50% of its installed power capacity from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030, reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 45%, and create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO₂-equivalent through forest and tree cover.
- The newly announced targets go beyond these earlier commitments by raising each of these benchmarks.
- The revised goal of 60% non-fossil installed capacity is particularly significant, as India has already demonstrated strong progress in this direction.
- By the beginning of 2026, nearly 52% of the country’s installed capacity was already derived from non-fossil sources, meaning the earlier 2030 target had been achieved well ahead of schedule.
- Moreover, until the close of 2025, India and Argentina were the only G20 countries yet to declare their 2035 NDCs.
- With this latest announcement, India has now addressed that notable gap in the global record of climate commitments
- Whether Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) have genuinely pushed countries toward clean energy remains the most important question in every climate commitment cycle, and the available evidence presents a rather mixed picture.
- The United Nations Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap Report 2025, significantly titled “Off Target,” offered a stark assessment: since 2015, countries have had three opportunities to align their commitments with global climate goals, yet on each occasion they have fallen short.
- Although the projected rise in global temperature has been revised downward from 2.6–2.8°C to 2.3–2.5°C, a substantial part of this apparent improvement is attributed to changes in methodology rather than real progress.
- In addition, the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement has further weakened these gains.
- According to the World Resources Institute, the NDCs submitted so far bridge less than 14% of the emissions gap required to keep warming within 1.5°C.
- A closer look at the commitments makes the situation even more concerning. The E3G NDC Energy Commitments Tracker, which reviewed 101 national submissions by the end of 2025, found that while 94% of countries had included at least one pledge related to the energy transition, none had produced a fully integrated roadmap consistent with the COP28 energy package.
- This package, popularly known as the “UAE Consensus,” was adopted by nearly 200 countries in December 2023 and called for faster climate action through a shift away from fossil fuels, a tripling of global renewable energy capacity, and a doubling of improvements in energy efficiency by 2030 to keep the 1.5°C target within reach.
- Yet, despite these commitments, no country specified a concrete target for reducing oil and gas production, and almost three-fourths of the submissions made no reference to reforming fossil fuel subsidies.
- Furthermore, many developing countries have made their climate goals contingent on receiving international financial support, which currently remains far below the required scale.
- This leads to a striking paradox: even though NDCs themselves have had limited success in driving policy transformation, the clean energy transition is still gathering pace globally.
- In 2025, worldwide installations of solar and wind energy reached an unprecedented 814 GW, and renewable sources overtook coal to become the largest source of electricity generation globally in the first half of the year.
- However, this momentum appears to be driven less by NDC commitments and more by rapidly declining renewable energy costs, technological advances, and intense industrial competition, especially the dominant role played by China in clean energy manufacturing.
- In this sense, the NDC framework has been more effective in recording and reflecting ongoing progress than in actually compelling countries to undertake the deep structural reforms necessary for a complete transition away from fossil fuels
- A recent study by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), highlighted by Carbon Brief, indicates that India’s CO₂ emissions increased by only 0.7% in 2025, marking the slowest pace of growth since 2001, excluding the exceptional pandemic year of 2020.
- This represents a sharp slowdown compared to the 4–11% annual rise recorded during 2021–24. The major reason behind this moderation was the power sector, where emissions declined by 3.8%.
- Notably, electricity generation from coal registered a fall for the first time since 1973 outside the Covid period. CREA notes that in 2025, India added nearly 47 GW of solar capacity, 6.3 GW of wind power, 4 GW of hydropower, and 0.6 GW of nuclear energy, creating enough clean electricity capacity to meet up to 5% of the growth in demand.
- However, this improvement was not uniform across all sectors. Emissions from steel production rose by 8%, while the cement sector expanded by 10%, contributing to the modest overall increase in emissions.
- According to the analysis, India’s power sector may be approaching a turning point as early as 2026, when the amount of newly installed clean energy capacity could fully match the annual rise in electricity demand.
- Supporting this outlook, the Central Electricity Authority’s National Generation Adequacy Plan estimates that non-fossil fuel capacity will reach 786 GW by 2035–36, accounting for nearly 70% of the total installed capacity, with solar power alone expected to exceed 500 GW.
- At the same time, some observers urge caution. They point out that 2025 witnessed relatively mild summer conditions, limited heatwaves, and subdued industrial activity, factors that may have temporarily reduced energy demand and emissions growth.
- Therefore, while the findings are encouraging, it may still be too early to treat this as a long-term structural shift, and a clearer trend would need to be confirmed over the coming years
India’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) assesses its climate progress through the metric of emissions intensity, that is, the volume of emissions released for every unit of GDP produced. Under this method, total emissions are still allowed to rise, so long as the economy expands at a faster rate than the growth in emissions. India has justified this approach on the basis of equity and developmental fairness, emphasizing that its per capita emissions are still only a small share of those seen in many developed Western countries.
However, certain inconsistencies continue to remain. The country is planning to add nearly 100 GW of coal-based power capacity over the next seven years, channel around $1 trillion into petrochemical investments by 2040, and expand coal-dependent steel production capacity by 50% by 2031. These plans appear to sit uneasily alongside its long-term climate commitments. In addition, as highlighted by Vibhuti Garg of the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, more than 37 GW of renewable energy capacity is currently lying underutilized because the power grid is not yet fully prepared to absorb and transmit it efficiently.
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For Prelims: Paris Agreement, Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), Fossil fuels
For Mains: GS III - Environment and Ecology
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Previous Year Questions
1. The term ‘Intended Nationally Determined Contributions’ is sometimes seen in the news in the context of (2016) (a) pledges made by the European countries to rehabilitate refugees from the war-affected Middle East (b) plan of action outlined by the countries of the world to combat climate change (c) capital contributed by the member countries in the establishment of Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (d) plan of action outlined by the countries of the world regarding Sustainable Development Goals Answer: (b) 2. With reference to the Agreement at the UNFCCC Meeting in Paris in 2015, which of the following statements is/are correct? (2016)
Select the correct answer using the code given below. (a) 1 and 3 only (b) 2 only (c) 2 and 3 only (d) 1, 2 and 3 Answer: (b) Mains
1. Describe the major outcomes of the 26th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). What are the commitments made by India in this conference? (2021) 2. ‘Climate Change’ is a global problem. How will India be affected by climate change? How Himalayan and coastal states of India are affected by climate change? (2017) |
