SUDAN'S CIVIL WAR

• Since achieving independence, Sudan has weathered 35 coups and attempted coups, surpassing any other African nation.
• The country's southern region witnessed a 56-year rebellion, culminating in the establishment of South Sudan in 2011.
• Similarly, the Darfurian uprising in 2003, sparked by allegations of discrimination by the central government against the non-Arab population, led to ethnic violence that persists to this day.
• A meticulous examination of Sudan's history spanning over three decades reveals a chronic identity crisis fueling numerous rebellions.
• Successive governments have faltered in managing the nation's diversity and articulating a unified vision, resulting in an unjust distribution of wealth and resources.
• With a population of 49 million, Sudan comprises 19 major ethnic groups and approximately 597 ethnic sub-groups, speaking myriad languages and dialects.
• Sudanese Arabs represent the largest single ethnic group, constituting about 70% of the population.
• However, political and economic power and resources are heavily centralised in the country's core, exemplified by Khartoum.

• In the early years following independence in 1956, Sudan's government emphasized an Arab and Islamic identity, rooted in the principles of Mahdism, an Islamic Sufi order established in the late 19th century.
• However, this approach alienated diverse communities, leading to widespread resistance against the imposition of Mahdist rule.
• In 1989, a significant shift occurred with the rise of the National Islamic Front, a coalition between army officers and the Muslim Brotherhood. This alliance, spearheaded by Omar al-Bashir and supported by Islamist leader Hassan al-Turabi, aimed to establish an Islamic state.
• The regime's tactics included the creation of an internal security apparatus to suppress dissent, along with the introduction of penal codes to enforce an Islamization agenda.
• Two pivotal events set the stage for the protracted conflict that persists today. First, the al-Bashir regime enlisted Janjaweed militias in 2003 to quell insurgency in Darfur, utilizing them to maintain control over conflict zones while keeping elite elements of the Sudanese army away from peripheral engagements.
• In 2013, al-Bashir formalized these tribal militias as the Rapid Support Forces, integrating them into the national security and intelligence services.
• Subsequent legislative actions solidified their status within the military hierarchy, directly under the president's command.
• Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti, rose to prominence as the leader of the Rapid Support Forces, consolidating power and influence.

Transition and Turmoil

• Following widespread protests in 2018, driven by grievances of poverty, corruption, and unemployment, the military intervened in April 2019, ousting al-Bashir and imposing a state of emergency.
• Despite initial efforts to establish a transitional military government, ongoing demonstrations demanded civilian leadership.
• Mediated by the African Union, a power-sharing agreement was reached in August 2019, forming a military-civilian transitional administration.
• However, challenges persisted, culminating in a failed coup attempt in September 2021. A month later, Sudan's top general, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, orchestrated another coup, derailing the country's democratic transition.
• The period preceding the outbreak of war in April 2023 was marked by violent repression of civilian protests and escalating tensions between the army and Rapid Support Forces leadership, setting the stage for the tragic conflict that engulfed Sudan.

• The emergence of the Rapid Support Forces marked a significant shift in Sudan's power dynamics, with this militia group strategically positioned as a counterbalance to the traditional armed forces.
• Deploying thousands of seasoned fighters across major cities, volatile border areas, and key economic centres such as gold mines, the RSF swiftly established its authority.
• The RSF's influence was bolstered by strategic partnerships, notably with Russia's Wagner Group, aimed at securing access to Sudanese gold reserves. This collaboration underscored the convergence of military and economic interests, further consolidating the RSF's power base.

Three pivotal factors converged to facilitate the ascent of a militia-dominated state, with the RSF at its helm:

1. The civil unrest in Darfur in 2003 presented a prime opportunity for the RSF to assert its dominance. With the army preoccupied with quelling rebellion in South Sudan, the suppression of the Darfurian uprising fell largely to paramilitary forces, allowing the RSF to expand its influence unchecked.
2. Endorsement from the Sudanese government provided the RSF with access to crucial financial resources and weaponry. This backing enabled the self-styled militia to establish lucrative commercial ventures, fostering autonomy from state control.
3. Hemedti, the leader of the RSF, adeptly portrayed the militia as a champion of marginalized Arab communities from Sudan's rural and border regions. This ideological narrative resonated with disaffected groups, further enhancing the RSF's legitimacy and support base.

The pivotal role played by Hemedti in Sudan's evolving democratic transition was underscored by his ascension to the vice presidency of the Sovereignty Council in 2021, tasked with overseeing the path to elections. However, dismantling the Rapid Support Forces or sidelining Hemedti posed significant risks, given the militia's size and extensive business interests.

1. The dominance of militias within the state apparatus posed challenges, potentially exacerbating conflict dynamics. Initially, Hemedti refrained from seizing power by force, instead positioning his troops as allies of the army, which also wielded significant economic influence.
2. However, the military coup in October 2021 dealt a severe blow to Sudan's democratic progress. Amidst repression and economic downturn, the Rapid Support Forces capitalized on the turmoil to expand its influence through lucrative business ventures and strategic engagements.
3. Efforts by the army to integrate the RSF back into conventional military structures backfired, triggering armed confrontations and enabling the Rapid Support Forces to seize critical areas. This escalation further destabilized the fragile political landscape, undermining hopes for a peaceful transition to democracy.