Strategic Patience

Trigger for Change

The Israel-Iran crisis refers to the ongoing tensions and conflicts between the state of Israel and the Islamic Republic of Iran. This crisis has multiple dimensions, including geopolitical rivalries, ideological differences, and military confrontations. 

• Israel and Iran are regional rivals with conflicting geopolitical interests. Iran seeks to expand its influence in the Middle East, particularly through support for proxy groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, both of which are hostile to Israel. Israel, on the other hand, perceives Iran's growing influence as a threat to its security and seeks to counter it.
• Israel is a predominantly Jewish state, while Iran is an Islamic republic led by Shia Muslim clerics. The two countries have different ideological orientations and often clash over issues related to religion, governance, and regional influence.
• Iran's nuclear program has been a major point of contention between the two countries. Israel views Iran's nuclear ambitions as an existential threat and has repeatedly warned against Iran obtaining nuclear weapons. In response, Iran insists that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only, but Israel remains sceptical.
• There have been several incidents of direct and indirect military confrontations between Israel and Iran, primarily through proxy groups. Israel has carried out airstrikes targeting Iranian interests in Syria, Lebanon, and other neighbouring countries. Iran, in turn, has supported armed groups that have launched attacks against Israel, including rocket attacks from Gaza and Hezbollah's activities in Lebanon.
• The ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran have raised concerns about the potential for escalation into a wider conflict. Both countries possess significant military capabilities, including advanced weaponry and missile systems. Any direct confrontation between them could have serious regional and global implications, potentially drawing in other countries and destabilizing the entire Middle East region.

• In 1948, Britain withdrew its forces from Palestine due to the escalating violence between Arabs and Jews. The responsibility for resolving the conflict was then handed over to the newly created United Nations. The UN presented a partition plan to create independent Jewish and Arab states in Palestine, but this plan was rejected by most Arab nations.
• The declaration of Israel's independence by the Jewish community in 1948 led to an attack by surrounding Arab states, resulting in the Arab-Israel War. At the end of the war, Israel controlled a larger territory than originally envisioned by the UN partition plan.
• The UN partition plan had designated Jordan to control the West Bank and Jerusalem's holy sites, while Egypt was given control over the Gaza Strip. However, this plan did not fully address the Palestinian crisis, leading to the formation of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) in 1964. The PLO aimed to free Palestine from Israeli control and establish the dominance of the Muslim Brotherhood in the Arab world. In 1975, the United Nations granted the PLO observer status and recognized the Palestinians' right to self-determination.
• The Six-Day War in 1967 resulted in Israeli forces seizing the Golan Heights from Syria, the West Bank and East Jerusalem from Jordan, and the Sinai Peninsula and Gaza Strip from Egypt. This further complicated the conflict and added to the territorial disputes. 
• In 1978, the Camp David Accords, brokered by the United States, aimed to establish a framework for peace in the Middle East and resolve the Palestinian problem. However, the full implementation of these accords remained unfulfilled.
• The emergence of Hamas in 1987 added another dimension to the conflict. Hamas, a violent offshoot of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, sought to fulfil its agenda through violent jihad. It is regarded as a terrorist organization.