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Critical Topics and Their Significance for the UPSC CSE Examination on November 14, 2024
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Conference of Parties (CoP 29)
For Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance
For Mains Examination: GS III - Environment & Ecology
Context:
In the run-up to the 29th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), it was touted as “the finance COP”, while the ‘New Quantified Climate Goal (NQCG)’ was among the key priority issues to be discussed therein.
Read about:
Kyoto Protocol
UNFCC
Key takeaways:
As the 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) approaches, it has been referred to as "the finance COP," with the 'New Quantified Climate Goal (NQCG)' as a central topic of discussion.
In this context, the approval of a global carbon market—a key mechanism for achieving the NCQG by facilitating emissions reductions and directing climate finance—is seen as a major achievement, announced on the first day of the global climate summit, which began on Monday (November 11) and will run through November 22.
With diverse agendas, high expectations, and pressing demands surrounding the ongoing conference, understanding the evolution of climate governance is essential.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC):
A major milestone in COP history was the creation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988. Formed through a collaboration between the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the UN Environmental Programme (UNEP), the IPCC’s mission is to deliver assessment reports, special reports, and methodologies that compile scientific knowledge on climate change and suggest response strategies.- Today, the IPCC is widely recognized as a key organization bridging science and policy, but in the 1980s, climate science faced substantial uncertainty, skepticism, and limited data. The IPCC's first report, published in 1990, was transformative, leading to widespread calls for a global climate treaty.
Conference of the Parties (COP):
- Although the UNFCCC set ambitious goals for tackling climate change, additional processes were needed to fully implement and strengthen its objectives.
- The Framework Convention ultimately led to the establishment of the Conference of the Parties (COP) as its main governing body. Each year, the COP gathers representatives from countries that have ratified the UNFCCC to review progress, negotiate new agreements, and fine-tune commitments.
- The COP is unique in its role as the only global decision-making forum where nearly every nation participates in shaping and implementing climate policies. Currently, the UNFCCC includes 198 parties (197 countries and the European Union).
- The first COP meeting, held in Berlin, Germany, in 1995, introduced the Berlin Mandate, which emphasized the need for legally binding commitments from developed nations, marking a pivotal step in international climate action
1.The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has announced which country to host the 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28) in 2023? (SSC CGL 2023)
A. UAE
B. US
C. UK
D. Russia
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Answer (A)
The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) announced that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) would host the 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28) in 2023
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How global warming affects forecasting?
For Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance
For Mains Examination: GS III - Environment & ecology
Context:
Existing models cannot reproduce monsoon trends in the past half century and are considered unreliable for the future. Meteorologists will need to figure out if the predictability of natural modes such as hurricanes, El Niño, La Niña, and the Indian Ocean Dipole will decrease as the warming is relentless, if not accelerating
Read about:
What is global warming?
Global warming and it's effects
Key takeaways:
- The record-breaking warming witnessed in 2023-2024 offers a more vivid understanding of the impacts of global warming. This period has been marked by a series of extreme weather events across the globe, including intense heatwaves, powerful cyclones, severe floods, droughts, and widespread wildfires.
- Some estimates suggest that the world has already surpassed the 1.5º C warming mark, meaning that the earth's average surface temperature has risen over 1.5º C compared to pre-industrial levels. It's important to note that these global temperatures are based on a combination of actual data and climate modeling.
- Since the 1.5º C threshold is a key concern for the Alliance of Small Island Developing States, scientists have developed models to forecast the environmental disruptions that exceeding this limit could cause.
- However, there's still uncertainty about how long temperatures need to remain above this level for the expected effects to fully unfold.
- The extreme weather patterns seen in 2023-2024 also serve as a stark reminder of how challenging it is to predict weather and climate with the precision and detail necessary for effective disaster management. Unfortunately, loss of life, damage to property, and destruction of infrastructure continue to disproportionately affect vulnerable communities, especially those in poverty.
2024 Predictions and Realities
- While meteorologists correctly anticipated the 2023 El Niño in the spring, the intensity of warming in 2023-2024 exceeded expectations. Factors such as water vapor from the 2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha‘apai underwater volcanic eruption and carbon dioxide from wildfires may have intensified this warming.
- The 2023 monsoon was below average but didn't qualify as an El Niño drought, which researchers are still trying to understand. Forecasts that predicted a strong La Niña in late 2024 seem less likely to materialize, and other weather patterns, such as the cyclone season, have also behaved differently from expectations.
- This isn't merely a critique of prediction models but rather a call for caution and learning from this period of extraordinary warming. We must understand its implications for future forecasts and climate projections.
Challenges of Predicting the Climate
- The often-quoted saying, “Prediction is difficult, especially about the future,” holds true, especially in weather and climate forecasting. Despite improvements in models and observation networks, global warming might make predictions even more challenging. Are the unexpected weather patterns of this year an anomaly, or do they signal what lies ahead?
- Numerous studies have explored the effects of warming on natural phenomena such as hurricanes, monsoons, and El Niños. However, if the earth has already warmed beyond 1.5º C, can we draw any clear conclusions about how these patterns have adapted so far?
- Unfortunately, the recent warming hasn't lasted long enough for us to identify significant shifts in dominant climate trends confidently. While climate models are proficient at simulating natural patterns based on solar energy, they aren't flawless, often producing inconsistent results.
- For instance, current models struggle to accurately replicate monsoon trends over the past fifty years and remain unreliable for predicting future trends. This limitation highlights the need to address whether monsoon patterns fluctuate by decade or indicate genuine trends influenced by climate change.
The Future of Climate Predictions
While there’s optimism for the advancement of climate predictions, relying solely on hope isn’t a strategy. It’s crucial to enhance models and acknowledge their existing strengths despite certain shortcomings. We must determine whether the predictability of natural events like hurricanes and El Niños will diminish as warming accelerates. Researchers are working tirelessly to refine models, data networks, and technologies, including AI, to tackle this challenge.
There’s cause for optimism regarding more reliable and actionable early warnings on a local scale.
Lessons from 2023
Climate projections are currently based on models that factor in emissions, population growth, and mitigation strategies. For the next couple of decades, uncertainties in projections will stem from model limitations and natural climate variability. Beyond this period, uncertainties will primarily depend on hypothetical scenarios.
The challenge of capturing the influence of warming on natural patterns will continue to pose a problem for long-term climate projections. Focusing on improving weather and climate predictions is essential to refine these models. The most reliable approach might be to limit our projections to just a decade or two ahead, given the difficulty of predicting geopolitical, economic, and societal changes over a more extended timeframe
Follow Up Question
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Answer (B)
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A recent advisory from the Finance Ministry has taken an initial step to address some of the challenges faced by queer couples who are not legally married. This clarification, along with a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) circular, instructs all commercial banks that LGBTQIA+ individuals and queer couples must be allowed to open joint bank accounts and name their partners as beneficiaries.
Challenges Faced by Unrecognized Queer Relationships
Beyond caregiving issues, the lack of legal recognition complicates everyday matters. Queer couples cannot obtain a family ration card, access benefits like gratuity or insurance as dependents, or receive tax advantages for payments made on behalf of a partner. They also face challenges in legal matters such as succession, inheritance, and maintenance. Their communications lack the evidentiary privilege afforded to married couples, potentially forcing them to testify against one another in court. Additionally, they cannot donate organs to each other or adopt a child together.
Supreme Court’s Stance
- In its October 2023 ruling, the Supreme Court did not recognize same-sex marriage, stating that such issues should be handled by the legislature. However, the Court acknowledged that the Constitution protects the freedom of individuals, including queer couples, to form unions.
- It noted that failing to recognize the entitlements that come with such unions could lead to disparities for queer couples. The Court also highlighted the Union government's plan to establish a committee chaired by the Cabinet Secretary to define these entitlements.
- This six-member panel, which includes Secretaries from various ministries, was set up in April, had its first meeting in May, and started consultations in July. LGBTQIA+ community members are encouraged to provide input directly to the committee.
- The Supreme Court’s directives include considering how to recognize queer partners as part of the same family for purposes such as ration cards, and ensuring medical practitioners consult next of kin or partners in terminal situations. The panel is also tasked with reviewing issues like jail visitation rights, access to deceased partners' bodies, succession rights, financial benefits, and employment-related entitlements.
Required Rule Changes
- Prior to the recent advisories, some banks had already allowed queer couples to open joint accounts and designate each other as beneficiaries, but these policies were often undermined by a lack of sensitivity training among staff. Chakraborty critiques these as “marketing gimmicks” and stresses the importance of legal backing for enforcing rights.
- Further changes may be needed through advisories from insurance regulators, public distribution systems, medical boards, and the Income Tax department to enhance benefits for queer couples.
- More substantial legal reforms may require amendments to family and inheritance laws, the Juvenile Justice Act, and the Income Tax Act, which would need to be passed by Parliament and State legislatures for deeper, lasting changes
The Union Budget 2024 and the Finance Bill introduced several updates to taxation policies.
Equities
- When the Finance Minister revealed an increase in the long-term capital gains (LTCG) tax rate from 10% to 12.5%, there was a strong negative reaction, leading to a drop in stock prices and indices.
- While this was disappointing for many, the government is only increasing its share of your gains slightly, from 10% to 12.5%. Key market factors like economic growth, new investors, and fresh capital remain unaffected.
- In the context of equities, tax harvesting is still possible. Since equity investments are generally long-term, investors typically stay invested for extended periods. As stock prices or mutual fund net asset values (NAV) rise, one can sell (realize gains) and repurchase the same asset.
- For instance, if you originally acquired the stock at ₹100 and later sell it in 10 years when it's priced at ₹200, you'll pay taxes on the ₹100 gain, following the prevailing tax rules for that financial year.
- The annual tax-free threshold, previously ₹1 lakh, has been increased to ₹1.25 lakh. If the stock's price rises to ₹130, you could sell and repurchase the asset. As long as the ₹30 gain falls within the ₹1.25 lakh limit, no tax is owed.
- This adjustment raises the acquisition cost for future tax purposes from ₹100 to ₹130. Consequently, when you eventually sell at ₹200, the taxable gain would be ₹70 instead of ₹100.
- Suppose you invested ₹10 lakh in equity mutual funds over a year ago, and today, the portfolio is valued at ₹11 lakh. You can redeem the portfolio tax-free as the gains fall within the ₹1.25 lakh exemption. If the portfolio value is ₹12 lakh, you can sell enough to ensure your gains remain within ₹1.25 lakh, thereby avoiding taxes.
- This assumes a lump sum investment and withdrawal. However, for investments made through Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) or withdrawals via Systematic Withdrawal Plans (SWPs), the NAV from the earliest investment is considered (First In, First Out).
Bonds
- For bonds, returns primarily come from interest, unlike equities where dividends are minimal, and most returns are from price appreciation. Bond interest continues to be taxed at the marginal slab rate (MSL), while the tax on capital gains remains relatively lower.
- For listed bonds held for over a year, capital gains are now taxed at 12.5%, up from 10%, still significantly lower than the MSL, which is typically 30% plus surcharge and cess for most investors.
- One key change is that capital gains on unlisted bonds are now taxed at MSL, regardless of the holding period.
- In equity mutual funds, the taxation is largely unchanged, with LTCG now taxed at 12.5%, up from 10%, and short-term capital gains (STCG) taxed at 20%, up from 15%.
- For debt funds, there is no significant change, with gains still taxed at MSL. However, a notable detail is that for investments made in debt funds by March 31, 2023, and redeemed after July 23, 2024, after a two-year holding period, they will be taxed at 12.5%, without the benefit of indexation. Investments in debt funds from April 1, 2023, onwards will be taxed at MSL.
REITs and InvITs
For REITs and InvITs, the required holding period for LTCG eligibility has been reduced from three years to one year, with the LTCG tax rate now set at 12.5%, up from 10%. This shorter holding period is a positive development
For Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance
For Mains Examination: GS II - Governance on money laundering
Context:
Questioning the probe agencies if there was “any independent data” to show “any incriminating evidence” against BRS leader K Kavitha and also on the “fairness” of the investigation by relying on the statements of some accused who had become approvers, the Supreme Court granted her bail Tuesday in the CBI and ED’s cases of alleged corruption and money laundering linked to the Delhi excise policy
Read about:
What is Money Laundering?
What is the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA)?
Key takeaways:
Section 45(1) of the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA), 2002 pertains to the stringent conditions for granting bail to individuals accused of money laundering offenses. The key points of Section 45(1) include:
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Non-Bailable Offense: Offenses under the PMLA are generally considered non-bailable. This means that bail is not granted as a matter of right, and it is up to the court to decide whether to grant bail.
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Court's Satisfaction: The court must be satisfied that there are reasonable grounds to believe that the accused is not guilty of the offense and that they are not likely to commit any offense while on bail. This is a higher threshold compared to the general principles of granting bail in other criminal cases.
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Public Prosecutor's Opportunity: The court must give the Public Prosecutor an opportunity to oppose the bail application. If opposed, the court must be further convinced of the above points before granting bail.
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Applicability: These conditions apply to offenses where the value involved is above a certain threshold, typically ₹1 crore, though this can vary depending on the case and amendments to the law.
Money Laundering
Money laundering is the process of concealing the origins of illegally obtained money, typically by means of transfers involving foreign banks or legitimate businesses. The goal of money laundering is to make the proceeds of criminal activities, such as drug trafficking, corruption, or tax evasion, appear legal and thus usable in the legitimate economy.
The process of money laundering generally involves three stages:
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Placement: The initial introduction of illegal funds into the financial system. This can be done by depositing cash into banks, purchasing assets, or using other methods to introduce the money into the financial sector.
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Layering: The most complex stage, involving multiple transactions to obscure the origin of the money. This might include moving the money through a series of bank transfers, changing its form by purchasing high-value items, or conducting international transfers to make tracking the money more difficult.
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Integration: The final stage, where the now-laundered money is integrated into the legitimate economy. At this point, the money appears to be legally earned and can be used for various purposes, including further investments, real estate purchases, or luxury spending.
Money laundering is a serious crime because it enables criminals to enjoy the profits of illegal activities without facing the consequences of their actions. It undermines the integrity of financial institutions and economies, and it is often associated with organized crime, corruption, and terrorism financing.
Follow Up Question
Discuss how emerging technologies and globalisation contribute to money laundering. Elaborate measures to tackle the problem of money laundering both at national and international levels. (UPSC CSE 2021)
Glacial lakes multiply in Himachal and Tibet, poses threat to lives and infra downstream
For Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance
For Mains Examination: GS I - World and Indian Gography
Context:
With glacier sizes rapidly reducing from the impact of changed weather patterns in recent years, there has been a gradual rise of moraine-dammed lakes in Himachal Pradesh and the Trans Himalayan Region of Tibet, posing a potential threat to human life and infrastructure further downstream.
Read about:
What is a glacier lake?
What is a Flash flood?
Key takeaways:
- Due to the rapid reduction in glacier sizes caused by recent changes in weather patterns, moraine-dammed lakes have been gradually increasing in Himachal Pradesh and the Trans Himalayan Region of Tibet, posing potential risks to human lives and infrastructure downstream.
- According to satellite data analyzed in a recent study by the Centre on Climate Change of the Himachal Pradesh Council for Science Technology-Environment (HIMCOSTE), the number of glacial lakes in the Satluj river catchment area has nearly doubled, rising from 562 in 2019 to 1,048 in 2023. This study focused on the catchment area of the Satluj basin, extending from upstream of Jhakri to Mansarover Lake in Tibet, where the river originates.
- Of the 1,048 lakes identified in 2023, 900 are small, each covering less than five hectares. Additionally, 89 lakes span between 5 and 10 hectares, and 59 lakes are larger than 10 hectares each.
- The basin-wise analysis suggests a higher concentration of lakes in the Tibetan Himalayan Region or the Upper Satluj basin compared to the Spiti and Lower Satluj basins.
- This implies that the Upper Satluj basin is more prone to the formation of glacial lakes. The formation of small lakes in the upper region suggests a more significant impact of climate change at higher altitudes, where the average temperature is rising more rapidly than in lower areas.
- The study, which analyzed multi-spectral satellite images, warns that the increase in glacial lakes in Himachal Pradesh’s river basins could lead to catastrophic events downstream if any of these lakes were to burst.
- Sunil Dhar, Dean of the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Central University of Jammu, emphasized that climate change has adversely affected glaciers across the Himalayan region, leading to a reduction in the cryospheric cover over the terrain.
- This has resulted in the development of high-altitude glacial lakes. Dhar pointed out that the number of such lakes has grown over the years, and they have become unstable due to the increased volume of water or the calving effect of nearby glaciers, leading to avalanches of snow or rocks.
- These lakes pose a potential threat to downstream settlements and infrastructure if they were to burst, depending on the volume of water, velocity, and the spread of the outburst
Read also:
What is a Cloudburst?
Follow Up Question
1.On the planet earth, most of the freshwater exists as ice caps and glaciers. Out of the remaining freshwater, the largest proportion (UPSC 2013)
(a) is found in the atmosphere as moisture and clouds
(b) is found in freshwater lakes and rivers
(c) exists as groundwater
(d) exists as soil moisture
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Answer (C)
Most of Earth's freshwater is locked away in ice caps, glaciers, and permanent snow, making up about 68.7% of the planet's total freshwater. However, the largest portion of the remaining freshwater, about 30.1%, exists as groundwater. Groundwater is found in aquifers, which are underground layers of water-bearing rock or sediments. This makes it the largest accessible freshwater source for human use, surpassing the amount of freshwater found in rivers, lakes, and reservoirs.
In contrast, only a small fraction of freshwater is found in surface water bodies like rivers and lakes (about 1.2%), and an even smaller amount is present in the atmosphere as moisture and clouds, and as soil moisture. Therefore, groundwater represents the most significant and vital source of freshwater available to meet human, agricultural, and industrial needs
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The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is one of the six main organs of the United Nations, responsible for maintaining international peace and security. Established in 1945, the UNSC plays a central role in addressing conflicts, promoting peaceful settlements, and authorizing peacekeeping missions. Its primary functions include:
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Maintaining International Peace and Security: The UNSC investigates disputes or situations that could lead to international conflict and recommends peaceful resolutions. It also decides on the deployment of peacekeeping forces to conflict areas.
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Authorizing Military Action: In extreme cases, the UNSC can authorize the use of force to maintain or restore peace. It also imposes sanctions to enforce its decisions.
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Adopting Binding Resolutions: The decisions of the UNSC are binding on all UN member states, making it the most powerful UN body.
Composition:
The UNSC consists of 15 member states, divided into:
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5 Permanent Members (P5):
- China
- France
- Russia
- United Kingdom
- United States
These five countries hold veto power, meaning any one of them can block the adoption of a resolution, even if the other members support it.
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10 Non-Permanent Members: Elected for two-year terms by the United Nations General Assembly, these members represent different regions of the world. They do not have veto power but can vote on resolutions.
The United Nations (UN) is an international organization founded in 1945, after World War II, to promote global peace, security, cooperation, and human rights. It currently has 193 member states and operates through various wings or specialized agencies and organs to address different global issues. These wings work in areas such as peacekeeping, development, humanitarian assistance, and international law.
Principal Organs of the United Nations
The UN has six main organs that carry out its broad mandate:
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United Nations General Assembly (UNGA):
- A deliberative body where all 193 member states are represented. Each member has one vote, and it discusses international issues and adopts resolutions on global matters.
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United Nations Security Council (UNSC):
- Responsible for maintaining international peace and security. It consists of 15 members, including 5 permanent members with veto power (China, France, Russia, the UK, and the USA), and 10 rotating non-permanent members.
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International Court of Justice (ICJ):
- The main judicial body of the UN, located in The Hague, Netherlands. It settles disputes between states and gives advisory opinions on international legal issues.
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United Nations Secretariat:
- The administrative arm of the UN, headed by the UN Secretary-General. It carries out the day-to-day work of the organization in areas like peacekeeping, diplomacy, and organizing conferences.
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United Nations Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC):
- Coordinates the economic, social, and environmental work of the UN and its specialized agencies. It fosters international cooperation on development issues.
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Trusteeship Council (inactive since 1994):
- Originally created to supervise the administration of trust territories and ensure their path to self-governance. It has been inactive since the last trust territory, Palau, gained independence
1.The United Nations, through its various specialized agencies and programs, plays a pivotal role in addressing global challenges like poverty, conflict, climate change, and human rights violations. Critically analyze the effectiveness of the United Nations system in promoting international peace and development. What reforms are necessary to enhance its role in the 21st century?" (250 words)
| Subject | Topic | Description |
| History | Modern Indian History | Company rule and Crown rule 1773 - 1947 |
| History | Modern Indian History | Fall of Mughals |
| History | Modern Indian History | Establishment of British rule in India |
| History | Modern Indian History | Economic Policies of the British |
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