Were 8 crore new jobs created in three years?

For Preliminary Examination:  Unemployment, Types of Unemployment

For Mains Examination: GS III - Indian Economy

Context:

Prime Minister Modi, based on the India-KLEMS database, claimed that India created “eight crore new jobs in the last three to four years”. However, analysts are questioning the methodology used to estimate these numbers. They argue that little meaningful employment was created in these years

Read about:

What is Unemployment?

Types of Unemployment

Key takeaways:

• India-KLEMS utilizes employment data from the PLFS, but instead of using the absolute number of workers, it relies on the Worker Population Ratio (WPR), which the PLFS provides as the proportion of workers in the population.
• To calculate the total number of workers, the WPR is multiplied by the total population. The challenge arises here because India does not have an official population figure after 2011.
• Demographers typically estimate population figures for years between censuses by interpolating data from the most recent Census. However, India-KLEMS took a different approach by using population estimates from the Economic Survey (ES) 2021-22 for the years 2017-18, 2018-19, and 2019-20.
• The ES projected population by assuming that the growth rates from 2001 to 2011 remained constant after 2011. These population projections were then multiplied by the WPR to estimate the number of workers for those years.
• For the years 2020-21 to 2023-24, India-KLEMS switched to a different source and method, using population projections from 2011-2036 published by the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare (MoHFW) in 2020.
• These projections were based on 2011 Census data and were adjusted annually using demographic models that included Total Fertility Rates (TFR) and mortality rates reported in the 2017 Sample Registration System (SRS).
• The question arises as to why India-KLEMS did not consistently use the MoHFW projections for all years after 2017-18. It seems that while the RBI updates the series with new estimates after 2022, it does not revise or update earlier estimates.
• There are two significant concerns here. First, the population projections from both the ES and MoHFW fail to account for the significant decline in fertility rates in India over the past decade.
• The standard replacement TFR is typically 2.1 children per woman, but recent National Family Health Survey (NFHS) data show that India’s TFR had dropped to 2.0 by 2019-21. Additionally, a 2024 study in The Lancet projected that TFR values in India and Bangladesh would fall below 1.75 by 2027. These declines in TFR were not factored into the population projections by either the ES or MoHFW.
• Second, the population projections from both the ES and MoHFW do not differentiate between rural and urban areas. As a result, India-KLEMS managers used national sex-wise population data, assumed uniform growth rates for rural and urban populations, and derived separate projections for each.
• However, it is well-known that rural populations in India are growing more slowly than urban populations. Assuming the same growth rates for both likely leads to an overestimation of the rural population.
• Due to these two issues, the population figures used to multiply the WPR in India-KLEMS, and the resulting estimates of the number of workers, are likely overestimated

Storms brewing in East, South China seas

For Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international importance

For Mains Examination: GS II - International relations

Context:

China asserts sovereignty over the East China Sea, particularly the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, which are controlled by Japan, and pushes its claims in the South China Sea, leading to heightened tensions with several Southeast Asian nations

Key takeaways:

In recent years, maritime East Asia has become a hotspot for escalating power struggles. The East China Sea, which borders China, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea, is a key area of contention. China claims sovereignty over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, currently under Japanese administration, leading to numerous disputes over time. Similarly, the South China Sea, situated between China, Taiwan, and five Southeast Asian nations — Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines, and Indonesia — has become a crucial flashpoint in the Indo-Pacific region. China's assertive approach in asserting its claims in this area has drawn widespread attention.

Why are these maritime areas crucial for China?

China views the East and South China Seas through the lens of sovereignty, territorial integrity, and national defense. According to its 2019 Defence White Paper, China considers the South China Sea islands and Diaoyu Islands as inseparable parts of its territory. It justifies its actions in these regions as exercises of sovereignty, including building infrastructure, deploying defense systems, and conducting patrols, though neighboring countries see these activities as aggressive.

Significance of these maritime regions

These seas are central to East Asia's trade routes, with the Taiwan Strait acting as a vital chokepoint. The region also hosts undersea cables essential to the global digital economy. In 2023, the South China Sea saw the transit of approximately 10 billion barrels of petroleum and 6.7 trillion cubic feet of liquefied natural gas, highlighting its economic importance. Furthermore, it holds significant untapped oil and gas reserves.

China’s Actions in the Region

China's aggressive territorial claims manifest through the construction of military infrastructure, such as ports, airstrips, and artificial islands, and by challenging the claims of neighboring countries. In the East China Sea, China has clashed with Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, with both nations taking firm stances in several incidents. Although tensions have eased somewhat recently, China's Coast Guard remains highly active around these islands, indicating ongoing friction with Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.

In the South China Sea, China's influence is expanding, backed by the largest navy worldwide. China's deployment of its Coast Guard and maritime militia has employed "grey zone" tactics — maneuvers designed to alter the status quo without triggering open conflict. This has led to increasing incidents, especially with the Philippines, where recent clashes over areas like the Second Thomas Shoal and Sabina Shoal indicate rising tensions.

Regional Responses

Countries in the region have responded in three primary ways:

• Enhancing Defense Capabilities: Nations like Japan and the Philippines have ramped up defense spending, acquiring advanced weaponry such as anti-ship BrahMos missiles from India.

• Challenging China’s Maritime Activities: Regional nations have taken a more vocal stance against Chinese actions. The Philippines, for example, has increased transparency by publicizing China's activities and involving international media to build a narrative.

• Strengthening Alliances with the U.S.: Countries such as Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines have deepened military cooperation with the U.S., resulting in increased joint exercises and defense dialogues. These alliances aim to counterbalance China's influence, though questions persist regarding the long-term reliability of U.S. commitments.

Despite these efforts, debates continue over whether the U.S.'s involvement stabilizes or escalates tensions in the region

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