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India-Uk trade and Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir and its significance for the UPSC Exam? Why are topics like Safe Harbour, Total Fertility Rate (TFR), Asteroid YR4 important for both preliminary and main exams? Discover more insights in the UPSC Exam Notes for May 12, 2025 |
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Critical Topics and Their Significance for the UPSC CSE Examination on May 12, 2025
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What will be impact of India-U.K. trade deal?
For Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international Significance
For Mains Examination: GS II & III - International relations & Trade agreements
Context:
After nearly three-and-half years, India and the U.K. finally gave their nod to a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) this week. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said the pact would set a new benchmark for “equitable and ambitious trade between the two large economies”.
Read about:
Free Trade Agreement (FTA)
Bilateral Agreements
Key takeaways:
- After more than three years of negotiations, India and the United Kingdom have finally agreed to a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) this week. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal described the agreement as a milestone that would establish a new standard for fair and ambitious trade relations between the two major economies.
- While the final details of the agreement have yet to be released, the Indian business community has generally welcomed the development, although concerns remain regarding its possible effects on agriculture and micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs).
- The deal is expected to be formally signed in about three months and will likely take over a year to be fully implemented.
- India currently ranks as the U.K.’s 11th largest trading partner, while the U.K. is India’s 16th. Their bilateral trade stands at approximately $60 billion, with India maintaining a trade surplus. According to the Indian government, this volume could double by 2030.
- Meanwhile, the U.K. government estimates that the new FTA could further increase trade by $34 billion. The agreement has been finalized against a backdrop of global trade instability, partly triggered by former U.S. President Donald Trump's protectionist policies.
- Although the official text of the agreement is not yet available, the U.K. has stated that India will reduce tariffs on 90% of its exports, with 85% becoming tariff-free over the next ten years.
- The estimated tariff savings under the agreement, based on 2022 figures, are around $534 million. On India’s side, tariffs will be eliminated on 99% of export categories, potentially boosting sectors such as textiles, footwear, engineering goods, auto components, and gems and jewellery. The U.K. also highlighted reductions in tariffs on vehicles, whisky, and gin—sectors impacted by Trump-era tariffs. For instance, the tariff on U.K. alcoholic beverages will drop from 150% to 75%, and eventually to 40% over a decade. Car import duties will be lowered from over 100% to 10%, though this will be subject to quotas depending on vehicle type and engine category.
- In the services sector, India secured an important concession: Indian workers in the U.K. and their employers will be exempt from social security contributions for up to three years, under the Double Contribution Convention.
- Immigration rules, a sticking point during talks with the previous Conservative government, are also expected to be eased, with commitments to transparency and minimal barriers for professional mobility.
- India’s automotive sector has responded positively to the deal. C.S. Vigneshwar, head of the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA), said the agreement would facilitate U.K. access to India’s premium vehicle market while allowing Indian manufacturers to cater to the U.K.’s mass-market segment. He noted that British mid-range vehicles are unlikely to challenge Indian offerings due to India’s cost advantages in labor and production.
- Regarding government procurement, the U.K. expects its companies to benefit from improved terms and increased access to bidding information. Dinesh Abrol of Jawaharlal Nehru University cautioned that this might deepen India’s reliance on imports.
- Another unresolved issue pertains to the U.K.'s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which would impose a carbon tax on imports with significant greenhouse gas emissions.
- This could directly impact Indian exports, particularly in aluminium and steel. Though CBAM is an EU initiative, Minister Goyal has indicated that India might impose similar measures in response, suggesting the possibility of future trade tensions.
Follow Up Question
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Answer (C)
ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) has Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with the following countries:
Hence, countries 1 (Australia), 3 (China), 4 (India), and 5 (Japan) are ASEAN's free trade partners |
What’s the self-defence clause in global law?
For Preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international Significance
For Mains Examination: GS III - Internal Security
Context:
On May 10, India and Pakistan agreed to halt “all firing and military action” following days of escalating tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. The announcement came after the Indian armed forces conducted 24 precision strikes on May 7, targeting terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir, in response to the Pahalgam massacre that left 26 dead. While India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri described the strikes as “measured and non-escalatory,” Pakistan denounced them as a “blatant act of war” and alleged civilian casualties
Read about:
What is the ‘unwilling or unable’ doctrine?
Is proportionality essential?
Key takeaways:
Understanding the Right to Self-Defence in International Law
- Under the United Nations Charter, the general prohibition on the use of force by member states is articulated in Article 2(4), which forbids actions that compromise another nation’s sovereignty or political independence.
- However, Article 51 provides a notable exception, allowing a state to use force strictly in response to an armed attack as an act of self-defence. Although India’s Foreign Secretary did not directly refer to Article 51, his characterization of the missile strikes as a reaction to the Pahalgam terror incident suggests an implied reliance on this legal principle.
- Nonetheless, the right to self-defence is not absolute. States invoking Article 51 are required to report any defensive military actions to the UN Security Council without delay. The Council then has the responsibility to take measures to restore or maintain global peace and security.
Can This Right Be Used Against Non-State Actors?
- The UN Charter was originally drafted to regulate the conduct of states, particularly in their use of force. However, the rise of non-state actors (NSAs) such as terrorist organizations has led some countries—especially the United States in the post-9/11 era—to argue that self-defence under Article 51 should extend to military responses against these entities, including groups like al-Qaeda and ISIS.
- Despite this, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) has interpreted Article 51 more narrowly. In rulings such as Nicaragua v. United States (1986) and Democratic Republic of the Congo v. Uganda (2005), the Court stated that for an NSA’s actions to justify self-defence, they must be attributable to a state—that is, carried out by or on behalf of one.
- Thus, state involvement remains a prerequisite for invoking Article 51. While India has not formally framed its missile strikes within this legal context, by asserting that the attackers were trained in Pakistan and referencing a history of cross-border terrorism, it appears to be making a case for state attribution.
Explaining the ‘Unwilling or Unable’ Doctrine
- A newer interpretation within international law—the "unwilling or unable" doctrine—suggests that a state may use force in self-defence against NSAs located in another country, if that country either cannot or refuses to act against them.
- The United States has actively supported this doctrine, citing it to justify the 2011 raid on Osama bin Laden in Pakistan and airstrikes against ISIS in Syria in 2014.
- However, this stance has faced criticism from countries like Russia, China, and Mexico, who argue it infringes on national sovereignty.
Necessity and Proportionality: Are They Required?
- Any invocation of Article 51 must conform to the principles of necessity and proportionality. It is widely accepted that if a state fails to act against NSAs within its territory, this may satisfy the necessity condition.
- Still, according to the 2010 Leiden Policy Recommendations on Counter-Terrorism and International Law, targeting the host state’s military or infrastructure is permissible only in rare instances—such as when the state is actively aiding the terrorist group.
- On proportionality, there are differing interpretations: one strict view limits force to ending an immediate threat, while a broader interpretation permits actions to avert reasonably foreseeable future attacks.
- In this light, the May 7 military strikes—aimed only at terrorist installations and not directed at Pakistan’s military or civilians—could be seen as complying with both necessity and proportionality requirements.
Role of the UN Security Council if Ceasefire Fails
- Should the ceasefire between India and Pakistan collapse, the UN Security Council could adopt a resolution urging an immediate end to hostilities. Further breaches might prompt the Council to impose sanctions or authorize the deployment of peacekeeping or military forces.
- However, the outcome of such resolutions is often contingent on the strategic interests of the five permanent members, each of whom holds veto authority
(15 marks, 250 words)
Is safe harbour important for social media?
For preliminary Examination: Current events of national and international Significance
For Mains Examination: GS II - Governance on Social Media
Context:
In written submissions to the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Communication and Information Technology, the Union Ministry of Information and Broadcasting said that it is reconsidering the concept of safe harbour for social media platforms, to combat the issue of “fake news” online.
Read about:
Cybercrime
Cyber Slave
Key takeaways:
Understanding Safe Harbour Protections in Digital Law
- Safe harbour refers to a legal shield that exempts websites and online platforms from being held legally responsible for content uploaded by third-party users. Introduced in the early stages of the internet, it was designed to support digital innovation and protect web hosts from being penalized for material they did not create or control.
- This concept ties into the broader issue of intermediary liability, where platforms act as conduits for user-generated content but are typically not accountable for it. In the United States, this protection is codified under Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934, updated in 1996. India provides a similar safeguard under Section 79 of the Information Technology Act, 2000.
- However, these protections are conditional. In India, intermediaries lose their immunity under Section 79 if they fail to act on illegal content once they have “actual knowledge” of it. The Supreme Court has clarified that this knowledge must come from either a judicial order or a government directive.
- Without these safeguards, intermediaries could face serious consequences. A notable case occurred in 2004, when the head of eBay India was arrested due to a user’s sale of a disk containing child sexual abuse material.
Regulation of Intermediary Protections in India
- The Information Technology (Intermediary Guidelines and Digital Media Ethics Code) Rules, 2021, introduced stricter criteria for maintaining safe harbour protections. Social media companies are now required to appoint a grievance officer based in India, maintain a nodal contact person, and regularly publish reports detailing complaints received and actions taken.
- In 2023, the government further amended these rules. The new provisions proposed that platforms could lose safe harbour protection if they failed to remove content labelled as “fake news” by the Press Information Bureau’s fact-checking unit. This amendment sparked legal challenges, notably by comedian Kunal Kamra, who questioned the government’s authority in appointing a body that could act as a truth arbiter.
- The Bombay High Court ruled in Kamra’s favour, though the government has appealed the decision.
Why Is the Government Considering Changes to Safe Harbour?
- The Indian government has criticized global social media companies for allegedly not complying with local regulations and being slow to respond to content takedown requests. Twitter (now X), both before and after Elon Musk’s acquisition, has pushed back against government demands to block or remove content without notifying users. These disputes continue in Indian courts.
- The government argues that revising the safe harbour framework would compel platforms to act more responsibly in moderating harmful content, including misinformation, deepfakes, and cyber fraud.
- Similar debates are taking place in the U.S., where both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have criticized Section 230, albeit for different reasons—Biden seeking stricter controls to curb extremism online, and Trump alleging political bias and censorship of conservative views
Follow Up Question
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Answer (B)
Under cyber insurance for individuals in India, common benefits include:
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Total Fertility Rate in India remains at 2.0; Bihar records highest count, Bengal lowest
For Preliminary Examination: Total Fertility Rate, Replacement Fertility Rate
For Mains Examination: GS III - Economy
Context:
The Total Fertility Rate (TFR), the average number of children born to women over their lifetime, in the country has remained at 2.0 in 2021, the same as in 2020, shows the Sample Registration System (SRS) report for 2021 released by the Registrar-General of India (RGI)
Read about:
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Replacement fertility rate
Key takeaways:
- According to the 2021 Sample Registration System (SRS) report by the Registrar-General of India, the country's Total Fertility Rate (TFR)—which indicates the average number of children a woman has over her lifetime—stood at 2.0, the same as the previous year. Bihar recorded the highest TFR at 3.0, while Delhi and West Bengal reported the lowest at 1.4.
- The data highlighted a steady reduction in the proportion of children aged 0–14, from 41.2% in 1971 to 24.8% in 2021. In contrast, the share of the working-age population (15–59 years) rose from 53.4% to 66.2% over the same period.
- Meanwhile, the proportion of senior citizens (aged 65 and above) increased from 5.3% to 5.9%, and the 60-plus demographic grew from 6% to 9%.
- During the 2024 interim Budget, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman proposed forming a high-level committee to address issues linked to population trends and demographic shifts. Despite the suggestion of rapid population growth, the SRS figures point to a more gradual demographic transition. However, a fuller understanding will only emerge after the delayed Census, last conducted in 2011, is completed.
- Since the Census is usually carried out every decade, the SRS remains the most comprehensive demographic survey, offering annual national and state-level estimates of fertility and mortality. The 2021 SRS covered 8,842 sample units across India, encompassing approximately 84 lakh people.
- In terms of ageing, Kerala had the highest share of elderly (60 and above) at 14.4%, followed by Tamil Nadu (12.9%) and Himachal Pradesh (12.3%). On the lower end were Bihar (6.9%), Assam (7%), and Delhi (7.1%).
- The average age at marriage for women has also risen, moving from 19.3 years in 1990 to 22.5 years in 2021.
- Significantly, India has now achieved the replacement level fertility rate of 2.1 at the national level. Several states have gone below this benchmark: Delhi and West Bengal (1.4), Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Kerala, Maharashtra, and Punjab (1.5), Himachal Pradesh and Telangana (1.6), Karnataka (1.6), Odisha and Uttarakhand (1.8), Gujarat and Haryana (2.0), and Assam (2.1)
Follow Up Question
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Answer (C)
The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the average number of children a woman would have over her lifetime if she were to experience the exact current age-specific fertility rates throughout her reproductive years (typically ages 15 to 49), and she survives through those years
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- YR4 is a near-Earth asteroid, meaning it orbits the Sun and comes within 1.3 times the Earth-Sun distance. Asteroids of this kind are labeled "potentially hazardous" if they intersect Earth’s orbit and measure over 140 meters in diameter.
- Initially, astronomers estimated YR4’s dimensions using ground-based optical telescopes. However, more precise infrared observations from the James Webb Space Telescope later determined its diameter to be around 65 meters, roughly equivalent to a 10-story building. For comparison, the asteroid believed to have caused the extinction of dinosaurs was approximately 10 kilometers wide.
- Despite being smaller than the hazardous-object threshold, YR4's size and trajectory prompted NASA to issue its highest asteroid impact alert in history in February, suggesting a 3.1% chance of Earth impact in 2032. Later assessments, based on improved data and orbital analysis, significantly reduced that likelihood, indicating a negligible risk to Earth.
- On April 2, NASA updated its prediction, stating there was now a 3.8% probability that YR4 could hit the Moon on December 22, 2032, with a 96.2% likelihood it would miss altogether.
- Astronomers monitor the sky for both new and known near-Earth asteroids. They use telescopic observations to develop orbital models of these bodies, calculating potential intersections with Earth's orbit.
- According to Jayant Murthy, honorary professor at the Indian Institute of Astrophysics, modern detection is mostly automated, using software that scans sequential sky images for moving objects.
- As more data becomes available, scientists refine their calculations regarding an asteroid's size and trajectory, allowing for more accurate forecasts.
- NASA’s Sentry system maintains a list of notable asteroid impact probabilities, assigning each a Torino Scale rating. This scale ranges from 0 (no risk) to 10 (global catastrophe). YR4 was briefly rated a 3, signaling some concern, but was later downgraded when its harmlessness became more evident.
- Even if YR4 were to collide with the Moon, it wouldn’t alter the Moon’s orbit. However, the resulting impact would create a crater between 500 and 2,000 meters wide, unleashing an explosion estimated to be 340 times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb.
- This event would be observable by lunar missions like India’s Chandrayaan-2, which is currently in orbit around the Moon
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Answer (C)
The THEMIS (Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms) mission by NASA was launched to investigate the cause of auroras—the colorful displays often seen in high-latitude regions of Earth. It specifically aimed to study geomagnetic substorms that contribute to these auroral displays
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Swachh Bharat Mission
Key takeaways:
Kerala's Waste Management: Evolution, Challenges, and Community Action
- Kerala has reached a notable level of public hygiene due to various historical and developmental influences. Traditionally, household waste—largely organic—was managed within the home itself, often reused as compost. However, following economic liberalisation, both consumption patterns and the nature of products changed drastically.
- As the State rapidly urbanised and agriculture’s contribution to the GDP dipped below 10%, consumer habits shifted toward market-based goods, resulting in waste that could no longer be managed in household backyards. Consequently, unmanaged waste began accumulating in neighbourhoods.
- A top official involved in the Kerala Solid Waste Management Project (KSWMP) noted that even over a decade ago, many civil service aspirants saw waste management as a top priority. That concern persists, indicating the enduring urgency of the problem.
- Historically, public health crises, such as England’s plague, shaped urban planning principles. Similarly, in Kerala today, health concerns are a primary motivator for urban reform, as reflected in the launch of the Vruthi campaign.
Government Response and Community Involvement
- Recognising the disconnect between private hygiene practices and unclean public areas, the State launched a vigorous campaign titled ‘Malinya Muktham Nava Keralam’ (Waste-Free New Kerala).
- This campaign seeks to unify stakeholders and institutions engaged in waste management. Tragic incidents, like the death of a sanitation worker in Thiruvananthapuram’s Amayizhanjan canal and rising cases of zoonotic diseases and dog attacks, have highlighted the need for cleaner public spaces and prompted tighter cooperation among government layers and local bodies.
- Beyond government efforts, civil society has played a vital role. Initiatives such as the strengthening of Haritha Karma Sena (Green Task Force), local outreach activities, cultural events, and healthy competition among local self-governments have generated momentum. Participation from schools, colleges, and youth organisations has also boosted the campaign’s outreach.
Comparison with the Swachh Bharat Mission
- Unlike the Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM), which is centrally guided and structured, Kerala’s waste-free campaign is bottom-up and emphasises behavioural transformation. SBM largely focuses on targets like the number of toilets or treatment plants built, often applying a one-size-fits-all model.
- Kerala’s initiative, in contrast, promotes community involvement and context-specific, adaptable strategies. The Vruthi conclave, for example, avoided promoting any one technology and instead created space for localised solutions—from black soldier fly composting to windrow methods—allowing cities to select approaches that best suit them.
- The campaign also moved beyond the binary of centralised versus decentralised waste management. It highlighted successful examples from both approaches—like Guruvayur’s well-functioning centralised model—and drew lessons from failures, such as Kochi’s Brahmapuram fire disaster, caused by mismanaged central systems.
- The State has significantly increased funding for local governments’ waste management, but the effectiveness of this funding remains constrained by capacity limitations. The Kerala Urban Policy Commission has underlined the need for professionalising services to improve urban governance
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Despite signs of progress, the effort remains government-driven. A key question is whether the movement will sustain itself if the State reduces its active involvement. There’s also a pressing need to enforce and strengthen Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR), which places waste disposal accountability on manufacturers rather than consumers or local governments.
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Ultimately, lasting change requires a shift in public attitude. The campaign’s slogan, “My waste, my responsibility,” must permeate all levels of governance and society, reaching into homes and individual mindsets alike
1.In India, ‘extend producer responsibility’ was introduced as an important feature in which of the following? (UPSC CSE 2019)
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Answer (c)
Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) was formally introduced in India through the e-Waste (Management and Handling) Rules, 2011. Under these rules, producers are responsible for the collection and safe disposal of electronic waste generated from the end-of-life of their products. This marked a significant shift in environmental policy by placing accountability on manufacturers
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| Subject | Topic | Description |
| Polity | Citizenship | Citizenship Amendment Act |
| Polity | Special Provision for Scheduled Caste(SC) and Scheduled Tribe (ST) | Special Provision for Scheduled Caste(SC) and Scheduled Tribe (ST) |
| Economy | International Monetary Fund (IMF) | International Monetary Fund (IMF) |
| Environment | Evolution of Life | Evolution of Life |
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