Kerala faces significant fiscal stress, meaning its government struggles to meet its expenditure with its revenue. 

• High fiscal deficit: Kerala has a high fiscal deficit, which is the difference between its revenue and expenditure. This indicates the government spends more than it earns, requiring borrowing to bridge the gap.
• Debt burden: The state has a high debt-to-GDP ratio, which is the total debt compared to the size of its economy. This increasing debt burden raises concerns about future repayment ability and limits spending on essential services.
• Limited revenue generation: While Kerala's tax effort (ratio of tax collected to GDP) is considered above average, it still struggles to generate enough revenue to meet its needs.
• Causes: Several factors contribute to Kerala's fiscal stress, including:
  • High social welfare spending: The state prioritises social programs, leading to high expenditure on healthcare, education, and pensions.
  • Stagnant economic growth: Limited economic diversification and a slowdown in some sectors restrict revenue growth.
  • Dependence on central government transfers: Kerala relies heavily on financial assistance from the central government, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in central transfers.

• Impacts: Fiscal stress can have negative consequences for Kerala's development:

  • Limited investment in infrastructure: Reduced funds for infrastructure projects like roads, bridges, and power plants can hinder economic growth.
  • Crowding out private investment: High government borrowing might compete with private sector borrowing, limiting investment opportunities.
  • Reduced service delivery: Fiscal stress can impact the quality and accessibility of public services like healthcare and education.

Current Situation

• Kerala is categorised as one of the five most indebted states in India by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
• The debate continues how to address the issue. Some advocate for stricter fiscal discipline and exploring new revenue sources. Others emphasise the need for increased central government support and economic reforms to boost revenue generation.

• Article 293 (1) empowers states to borrow money for their functioning, but with limitations set by their respective legislatures. This ensures responsible borrowing and prevents excessive debt accumulation by state governments.
• Article 293 (2) allows the Central Government to provide loans to state governments.
• Article 293 (3) restricts states from raising loans without the Central Government's consent if they already have outstanding loans or guarantees from the Central Government. This provision aims to ensure states manage their finances responsibly and avoid excessive debt.
• Article 293 (4) A consent under clause (3) may be granted subject to such conditions, if any, as the Government of India may think fit to impose.

The Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act, 2003 (FRBM Act) is a crucial piece of legislation in India that aims to achieve fiscal discipline by the government. 

Objectives

• Reduce India's fiscal deficit: The act sets targets for the government to gradually bring down the fiscal deficit, which is the gap between its revenue and expenditure.
• Improve macroeconomic management: By ensuring responsible borrowing and spending, the FRBM Act aims to promote economic stability and growth.
• Enhance transparency in fiscal operations: The act mandates the government to present medium-term fiscal policy statements, promoting greater transparency in budgeting and debt management.

Key Provisions

• Fiscal deficit targets: The act originally laid out a roadmap for reducing the fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) by March 2008. This target has been revised over time.
• Fiscal policy statements: The government is required to present three statements to the Parliament along with the annual budget
  • Medium-Term Fiscal Policy Statement (MTFPS) outlines the fiscal roadmap for the next three years, including revenue and expenditure projections.
  • The Fiscal Policy Strategy Statement (FPSS) document focuses on the medium-term fiscal strategy for achieving the deficit targets.
  • Macroeconomic Framework Statement (MFS) statement presents the government's assessment of the overall economic situation and its implications for fiscal policy.
• Fiscal responsibility rules: The act empowers the government to frame rules for achieving the fiscal deficit targets. These rules may specify measures for curtailing expenditure, improving revenue collection, and managing public debt.

Criticisms and Challenges

• Balancing fiscal discipline with growth: Critics argue that a rigid focus on deficit reduction might hinder government spending on essential sectors, impacting economic growth.
• Achieving targets: The government has not always been able to meet the stipulated deficit targets due to various factors like economic slowdowns or unforeseen circumstances.
• Flexibility: Debates exist regarding the need for flexibility in the act to accommodate economic emergencies or unforeseen circumstances.

Significance

Despite the challenges, the FRBM Act has played a significant role in promoting fiscal discipline and transparency in India's public finances. It has helped to:

• Reduce the fiscal deficit over time, leading to greater macroeconomic stability.
• Increase awareness of fiscal issues and promote public debate on budgetary matters.
• Provide a framework for medium-term fiscal planning and debt management.

States in India can sometimes borrow beyond the FRBM (Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management) Act limits but with some restrictions. 

FRBM Act and Borrowing Limits: The FRBM Act sets targets for the government to gradually reduce the fiscal deficit (the gap between revenue and expenditure). These targets apply to both the central government and state governments.

Exceptions for States

• Legislative Flexibility: State legislatures can set their own borrowing limits within the FRBM framework. This allows some flexibility for states based on their specific circumstances.
• Central Government Loans: Article 293 (2) of the Indian Constitution allows the Central Government to provide loans to state governments. In critical situations, the central government might offer loans exceeding the FRBM limits to support states.
• Natural Disasters and Emergencies: In unforeseen circumstances like natural disasters or national emergencies, states may be allowed to borrow beyond the FRBM limits to meet immediate needs. However, this usually requires approval from the central government.

Restrictions on Borrowing Beyond Limits

• Article 293 (3) of the Constitution: This provision restricts states from raising loans without the central government's consent if they already have outstanding loans or guarantees from the central government. This discourages excessive borrowing and ensures some level of control.
• Loan Conditions: The central government may impose conditions on loans exceeding FRBM limits. These conditions could involve stricter fiscal discipline measures or reforms from the state government.

These recommendations are typically part of fiscal discipline measures to ensure responsible borrowing and debt management by state governments.

• 2021-22: 4% of GSDP: This recommendation implies that for the fiscal year 2021-22, state governments are advised to keep their net borrowing within 4% of their respective Gross State Domestic Product. This limit serves as a guideline to prevent excessive borrowing that could strain state finances.
• 2022-23: 3.5% of GSDP: For the following fiscal year 2022-23, the recommended net borrowing limit is lowered to 3.5% of GSDP. This reduction indicates a gradual tightening of fiscal discipline, aiming to curb borrowing and promote fiscal sustainability.
• 2023-24 to 2025-26: 3% of GSDP: The subsequent years from 2023-24 to 2025-26 see a further reduction in the recommended net borrowing limit to 3% of GSDP. This signifies a sustained effort to limit state borrowing and manage public debt within manageable levels relative to the state's economic output.

ELECTRIC VEHICLES

 

1. Context

No petrol motorcycles and scooters can be registered in Delhi after March 31, 2028, the Delhi government announced on Monday. The registration of new CNG auto-rickshaws will stop at the end of this year. Beginning April 2028, therefore, every new two- and three-wheeler sold in Delhi will have to be an electric vehicle (EV).

2. What are Electric Vehicles?

• An E-vehicle or Electric Vehicle is one that needs an electric motor to generate power and function instead of an internal-combustion engine that generates power by burning a mix of gases and fuel.
• Electric Vehicles have a battery that can be charged by an electric supply.
• This electric energy is used to run the motor. There is a hybrid electric vehicle as well, which means a combination of an electric motor and a combustion engine.

3. Types of Electric Vehicles

• Plug-in electric – Such Electric Vehicles run purely on electricity, and it is powered when it is plugged in to charge. They don’t produce emissions like petrol or diesel.
• Plug-in hybrid – Their primary source of power is electricity, but these vehicles also have a fuel engine. These cars produce emissions only when they run on fuel engines but not when they run on electricity.
• Hybrid-electric – These Electric Vehicles primarily run on petrol or diesel, but they’re also fitted with an electric battery. One can charge the battery through regenerative braking. It comes with a button that lets you switch from using a fuel engine to using an electric battery (EV mode.)
• Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs)– these vehicles use a highly efficient electrochemical process to convert hydrogen into electricity, and it powers the electric motor.

4. Initiatives by the Government

The government has set a target of 30% new sales of electric vehicles and two-wheelers by 2030. The government is working towards it by following the initiative and various government schemes.

National Electric Mobility Mission Plan (NEMMP)

• It is a road map/document for India’s fuel security by promoting and faster adoption of electric vehicles in India with the initial allocation of Rs 75 crore. The ambition is to have around 6 million vehicles on the road by 2020.
• This plan is for affordable and environmentally friendly transportation in the country and to achieve automotive leadership in global manufacturing.

Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of (hybrid and) electric vehicles (FAME)

• The scheme was announced by the government in 2015 with the objective of market creation and developing a manufacturing ecosystem with sustainable development.
• It is formulated by the Department of Heavy Industry, having 4 key areas- technology creation, demand creation, pilot projects, and infrastructure related to charging.

Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of (hybrid and) electric vehicles (FAME) II

• Based on the result and experience of phase I of the scheme, phase II was launched with an allocation of Rs 10000 Crore over three years, recently approved by the cabinet.
• This scheme vision a holistic approach to the EV industry, including infrastructure for charging, manufacturing of batteries, market creation, public demand, and push for EVs in public transport.
• It also offers incentives to the manufacturer of electric vehicles and their components.
• It enables the creation of charging infrastructure in selected cities and major highways at an interval of 25 km.

5. Electric Vehicle Policy, 2020

Electric Vehicle Policy 2020 has been announced by the Delhi Government, where it put emphasis on the replacement of two-wheelers, shared vehicles, public transport, and private four-wheelers with Electric Vehicles. Some of the Features of EV Policy 2020 are given below:

• As per Electric Vehicle Policy, the focus is given to e-mobility, which includes e-buses and e-autos.
• The government has decided to give low-interest loans so that people can purchase Electric Vehicles easily.
• The main goal of the E-Vehicle Policy in India is to reduce pollution and curb health issues in Delhi.
• State EV Fund will be introduced for the expenditure of EV Policy.

6. Challenges in promoting Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) Adoption

• Subsidy Limitations: In contrast to countries like Norway, where extensive subsidies have spurred BEV adoption, India's subsidy structure primarily benefits the middle or upper middle classes. This inequality raises concerns about the effectiveness and fairness of upfront purchase subsidies, which tend to benefit those who can afford BEVs.
• Charging Network: Investing in comprehensive charging infrastructure is crucial for driving BEV adoption. Countries like Norway and China have seen success by expanding public charging stations while providing purchase subsidies. However, India's charging infrastructure remains insufficient, particularly for two- and three-wheelers, which dominate the vehicle mix. Adapting charging strategies to accommodate different vehicle types and power requirements is essential for promoting widespread adoption.
• Electricity Source: India's reliance on coal-fired thermal plants for electricity generation poses a challenge to the potential environmental benefits of BEVs. While EVs may reduce tailpipe emissions, continued reliance on thermal plants contributes to pollution. Shifting towards renewable energy sources is necessary to mitigate these concerns and achieve cleaner electric mobility.
• Limited Access to the Global Lithium Value Chain: India's heavy reliance on imports for lithium-ion batteries raises concerns about supply chain vulnerabilities. The concentration of global lithium production and key battery components in a handful of countries creates dependency risks. Diversification of the country's battery technology and exploring alternative options to lithium-ion batteries is crucial for long-term sustainability.
• Technology Agnostic Approach: While BEVs have gained traction in the two-wheeler and three-wheeler segments, the four-wheeler segment lags behind. Governments must adopt a technology-agnostic approach that encourages the adoption of various electrification technologies, including hybrids and fuel-cell vehicles. Such an approach promotes innovation, fosters competition, and allows manufacturers to meet emissions objectives irrespective of technology.
• Exploring Alternative Technologies: Hybrids serve as an intermediate step toward full electrification, offering improved fuel efficiency without relying solely on charging infrastructure. Additionally, exploring flex-fuel vehicles running on multiple fuel types, fuel cell electric vehicles, hydrogen internal combustion engine vehicles, and synthetic fuels can provide alternative options for reducing emissions and promoting sustainable mobility.

 

For Prelims: Electric Vehicles, Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs), Electric Vehicle Policy, 2020, National Electric Mobility Mission Plan (NEMMP), Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of (hybrid and) electric vehicles (FAME), Global Lithium Value Chain. For Mains: 1. Analyze the challenges and opportunities in promoting the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in developing countries like India. Discuss the key factors that hinder EV penetration and propose strategies to overcome them.(250 Words)

 

 

Previous year Question 1. Which of the following Indian States/Union Territories launched Electric Vehicle Policy on 7th August 2020? (UPPSC 2020) A. Madhya Pradesh B. Uttar Pradesh C. Delhi D. Tamil Nadu Answer: C

Source: The Indian Express

 

 

 

PROJECT CHEETAH

 

1. Context

Goats and cattle together make up 50%, while Chital (spotted deer) formed 42% alone of the detected kills by 19 free-ranging cheetahs under Project Cheetah in the Kuno National Park

2. Why was Project Cheetah launched?

• India's cheetah relocation program is perhaps among the most ambitious of its kind in the world.
• The attempt is to, over the next decade, bring in five to 10 animals every year until a self-sustaining population of about 35 is established.
• Unlike, cheetahs in South Africa and Namibia, which live in fenced reserves, India's plan is to have them grown in natural, unfenced, wild conditions.
• At Kuno, only six of the 17 adults are in the wild with the rest lodged in large, specially designed enclosures to help the animals acclimatize to Indian conditions.
• The plan is to release all the animals into the open by the yearend. The animals are radio-collared and tracked 24/7. 

3. How do cheetahs die?

• The South African study also documented the causes of mortality, where it could be established, for 293 cheetah deaths.
• It found that holding camps caused 6.5% of cheetah deaths, immobilization/ transit caused 7.5% of deaths, and another 0.7% were caused by tracking devices. This added up to almost 15%  so, one in every seven cheetah deaths was attributed to handling and management.
• Predation turned out to be the biggest killer in the study, accounting for 53.2% of cheetah mortality. Lions, leopards, hyenas, and jackals were primarily responsible. Several other wildlife including warthogs, baboons, snakes, elephants, crocodiles, vultures, zebras, and even ostriches killed cheetahs.
• It is well documented that cheetahs suffer very high cub mortality up to 90% in protected areas mainly due to predation. Consequently, nearly 80% of all cheetahs throughout their range in Africa are found living outside of protected parks and reserves.

4. Were these unfortunate cheetah deaths unexpected?

• The Cheetah Project did anticipate high mortality. The criteria for the project’s short-term success was only “50% survival of the introduced cheetah for the first year”. That would be 10 out of 20.
• As a result, the Madhya Pradesh government set a six-month deadline for readying Gandhisagar in the Chambal river valley in Mandsaur and Nimach districts for the cheetahs. There is also talk about moving a few animals from Kuno to the safety of an 80-sq-km fenced area in Rajasthan’s Mukundra Hills Tiger Reserve.
• The focus, therefore, is shifting from the project’s stated purpose that of establishing the cheetah in an open landscape as a free-roaming and self-sustaining population occupying thousands of square miles to managing the African imports as a few pocket populations in fenced-in or restricted areas.

5. How successful has Project Cheetah been so far?

• In September 2023, it will be one year since a batch of eight cheetahs from Namibia arrived in India.
• They were followed by 12 others from South Africa in February 2023. The official Cheetah Action Plan, the guiding document behind the project, observes that even half the cheetahs surviving the first year would be “an indicator of success”.
• Independent critics have, however, argued that there are some basic flaws in the project. For one, it is a mistake to have had all 20 cheetahs at Kuno as there is too little space and prey, given that the animal is a courser and needs larger fields of play.
• Some animals should have gone to the Mukundara reserve in Rajasthan. Forest officials in Madhya Pradesh have also admitted that they are stretched.
• However, the officials in the National Tiger Conservation Authority, the nodal agency of the Environment Ministry tasked with coordinating the project, say that Kuno is capable of hosting the first lot of animals and future batches will be sent to other reserves.
• The experience of raising cheetahs in fenced reserves in Africa can’t be replicated in India, say, experts, because India’s cultural values promote coexistence with beasts, and that underpinned the success of tiger, lion, and leopard conservation programs.

For Prelims: Kuno National Park, National Tiger Conservation Authority (NTCA), Project Cheetah, Chambal river valley, and South Africa.

Previous year Question

1. Recently there was a proposal to translocate some of the lions from their natural habitat in Gujarat to which one of the following sites? (UPSC 2017) A. Corbett National Park B. Kuno Palpur Wildlife Sanctuary C. Mudumalai Wildlife Sanctuary D. Sariska National Park Answer: B 2.Consider the following: (2012) Black-necked crane Cheetah Flying squirrel Snow leopard Which of the above are naturally found in India? (a) 1, 2 and 3 only (b) 1, 3 and 4 only (c) 2 and 4 only (d) 1, 2, 3 and 4 Answer (b) Black-necked crane - Naturally found in India, especially in the northern regions such as Ladakh. Cheetah - Historically present in India but is currently extinct in the wild. Flying squirrel - Naturally found in India, particularly in forests. Snow leopard - Found in the high-altitude regions of the Himalayas in India. Thus, the species that are currently naturally found in India are the Black-necked crane, Flying squirrel, and Snow leopard

Source: The Hindu

 

 

STRAIT OF HORMUZ

 

 

1. Context

 

With the signing of the framework agreement between the US and Iran on June 15, the Strait of Hormuz has been reopened for the ships of the world and the US blockade on Iranian ships lifted. Still, there are fundamental legal concerns relating to the Strait that require answers.

 

2. What is the Strait of Hormuz?

 

• The Strait of Hormuz is a strategically significant and narrow maritime passage situated between Iran and Oman, serving as a link between the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and the Arabian Sea. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has labeled it as the world’s most vital oil transit chokepoint, through which nearly 20% of global liquid petroleum fuels and a substantial portion of LNG trade pass. In May, more than 45% of India’s crude oil imports were estimated to have transited through this strait. Given that India is the third-largest consumer of crude oil globally and imports over 85% of its oil needs, the strait plays a crucial role in its energy security.

• Data from the commodity analytics firm Kpler indicates that, as of June, India has been importing over 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil from Russia, which constitutes more than 41% of its total oil imports.

• While oil imports from the U.S. have shown a steady rise, supplies from West Asian nations such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait have remained relatively consistent. Many of these shipments were likely planned prior to the recent escalation in tensions between Israel and Iran, and therefore, may not reflect the impact of the current geopolitical developments.

• Over the past two to three years, India has notably adjusted its oil import strategy. Russia has emerged as India’s top crude supplier, overtaking traditional exporters from West Asia. Importantly, Russian oil bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, as it is mainly transported via alternative sea routes like the Suez Canal and Red Sea, and sometimes through the Cape of Good Hope or Pacific Ocean routes.

3.Why is Strait of Hormuz Critical?

 

• The Strait of Hormuz is commonly considered the most critical maritime chokepoint in the world. It links the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean, serving as a major export corridor for regional oil producers.
• At its narrowest point, it measures only about 21 nautical miles (38 km) across. Under typical conditions, nearly 21 million barrels of oil—around one-fifth of global consumption—flow through it daily.
• Alongside crude oil, substantial quantities of liquefied natural gas from Qatar and the UAE are transported via this passage.
• A significant share, close to 80%, is destined for Asian markets, making countries like India, China, Japan, and South Korea heavily reliant on this route.

 

4. Other Major Global Chokepoints

 

• Apart from Hormuz, international trade depends on a few other strategically vital maritime passages, including the Strait of Malacca, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Suez Canal, and Panama Canal.
• The Strait of Malacca lies between the Malay Peninsula and Indonesia’s Sumatra island and represents the shortest maritime route connecting the Indian Ocean with the South China Sea. This makes it indispensable for trade flows linking West Asia, Africa, and East Asia.
• The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is positioned between the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa.
• It serves as the southern entrance to the Red Sea, a necessary transit point for vessels heading toward the Suez Canal and onward to the Mediterranean, thereby forming a crucial segment of Asia–Europe trade routes.
• The Suez Canal, a man-made channel across Egypt, connects the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea, significantly reducing travel time by eliminating the need to circumnavigate Africa.
• Further west, the Panama Canal cuts through the Isthmus of Panama, linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. This strategic shortcut facilitates trade between Asia, the Americas, and Europe, removing the necessity of sailing around South America

 

5. Why is the Strait of Hormuz strategically important for India?

 

• India’s current oil procurement approach already demonstrates a diversified and risk-mitigated strategy, especially in light of uncertainties in West Asian oil routes, with Russian crude now making up the largest share of India’s import basket.

• After recent U.S. air strikes targeting Iranian nuclear sites, Iran’s parliament passed a resolution on Sunday advocating the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor for global oil transportation. The final decision on this move now lies with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.

• Although Iran has repeatedly issued threats in the past to shut the strait, it has never acted on them. Even in the present context, industry analysts consider the likelihood of an actual blockade to be low. Nevertheless, the increased risk perception surrounding the potential closure is expected to trigger global alarm, including in India, by raising concerns over the security of oil and gas supplies and potentially driving up global energy prices.

 

6. How does the Israel-Iran conflict pose a threat to global oil and gas flows?

 

 

• The Israel-Iran conflict poses a significant threat to global oil and gas flows due to the geopolitical sensitivity and strategic location of the region. At the heart of this issue lies the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow but crucial maritime passage through which nearly 20% of the world’s petroleum and a substantial share of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are transported.
• Iran borders this strait and has, over the years, repeatedly threatened to block it during periods of heightened tension, including in response to military actions or sanctions.
• When hostilities between Israel and Iran escalate—such as through air strikes, proxy conflicts, or cyber warfare—it increases the likelihood of retaliation from Iran that could involve disrupting maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Even if Iran does not fully close the strait, the mere threat or perception of such an action is enough to cause volatility in global energy markets. Tanker insurance rates rise, shipping routes are reconsidered, and countries heavily dependent on oil imports, like India, become increasingly vulnerable to supply disruptions and price shocks.
• Furthermore, any military conflict in this region risks damaging key infrastructure such as refineries, pipelines, or export terminals in the broader West Asian region.
• This would constrain oil production and distribution, affecting both the availability and price of crude oil and gas worldwide. Global markets respond quickly to these risks, often resulting in immediate spikes in prices due to concerns over supply security.
• In summary, the Israel-Iran conflict amplifies the risk to global oil and gas flows by potentially destabilizing a region that is central to global energy supply chains. It heightens fears of supply disruptions, increases market speculation, and threatens the economic stability of energy-importing countries, making it a matter of both geopolitical and economic concern

7. Way Forward

 

The flow of vessels through major international chokepoints is largely regulated by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. According to its provisions, straits that are used for global navigation fall under the concept of “transit passage,” which permits ships and aircraft from all countries to move through them freely, continuously, and without interference.

At the same time, coastal states bordering these straits are allowed to introduce regulations related to safety or environmental protection. However, they are not permitted to block passage or apply discriminatory restrictions on specific vessels. While this freedom of navigation is widely accepted in international law, its practical implementation often depends on the naval capabilities of states and the level of cooperation among them

 

 

For Prelims: Strait of Hormuz,  Persian Gulf, Energy Information Administration (EIA), liquefied natural gas (LNG)   For Mains: General Studies II: Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests.

 

Previous Year Questions   1.Which one of the following straits is nearest to the International Date Line? (UPSC CSE 2008) (a) Malacca Strait (b) Bering Strait (c) Strait of Florida (d) Strait of Gibraltar Answer (b) The International Date Line (IDL) roughly follows the 180° longitude, which lies in the Pacific Ocean, deviating slightly to accommodate international boundaries. The Bering Strait lies between Russia and Alaska, and it is very close to the 180° meridian, making it the closest strait to the International Date Line. Here's why the other options are incorrect: Malacca Strait – Lies between Malaysia and Indonesia, far west of the IDL. Strait of Florida – Lies between the U.S. (Florida) and Cuba, in the Atlantic Ocean. Strait of Gibraltar – Connects the Atlantic Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea, between Spain and Morocco, far from the IDL.

Source: Indianexpress

 

 

MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION

 

 

 

 

1. Context

 

After remaining largely inactive for more than a week, the monsoon finally picked some strength and momentum beginning Monday. Maharashtra, for instance, received its first good rainfall of the season on Tuesday.

 

 

2. What is the Madden-Julian oscillation?

 

• The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is one of the most important atmospheric phenomena in the tropical region of the Earth. It is a large-scale pattern of atmospheric circulation characterized by alternating periods of enhanced and suppressed rainfall that travels eastward around the equator.
• Unlike cyclones, which are localized weather systems, or seasonal climate phenomena such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the MJO is an atmospheric disturbance that continuously moves across the tropical oceans, influencing weather conditions over vast geographical areas.
• The phenomenon was first identified in 1971 by meteorologists Roland Madden and Paul Julian, after whom it is named. Their research showed that tropical rainfall and atmospheric pressure exhibit a recurring pattern that moves eastward around the globe over a period of about one to two months.
• The MJO originates most frequently over the tropical Indian Ocean, where warm ocean waters provide the energy necessary for the development of deep convection.
• The system then moves eastward across the maritime continent, including Indonesia, into the tropical Pacific Ocean and, on some occasions, continues into the Atlantic Ocean before gradually weakening. The entire cycle generally takes between 30 and 60 days, although it may sometimes extend to nearly 90 days.
• The MJO consists of two distinct phases: the active (enhanced) phase and the suppressed phase. During the active phase, warm, moist air rises from the Earth's surface, leading to the formation of extensive cloud cover, heavy rainfall, and intense thunderstorm activity.
• This upward movement of air releases large amounts of latent heat, strengthening atmospheric circulation. In contrast, the suppressed phase is characterized by sinking air, which inhibits cloud formation and results in clear skies, reduced rainfall, and relatively dry weather conditions.
• As the MJO moves eastward, these two phases travel together, causing alternating wet and dry periods in tropical regions.
• One of the reasons the MJO is scientifically important is that it serves as a bridge between short-term weather events and long-term climate variability.
• While ordinary weather systems usually last for only a few days, and climate phenomena like ENSO persist for several months or even years, the MJO operates on an intra-seasonal timescale, making it highly valuable for forecasting weather several weeks in advance.
• The MJO has a profound influence on the Indian monsoon. When its active phase is located over the tropical Indian Ocean and surrounding regions, convection increases significantly, leading to enhanced monsoon rainfall over India.
• This often results in active monsoon spells with widespread precipitation. Conversely, when the suppressed phase dominates the region, rainfall decreases, leading to weak or break monsoon conditions.
• Therefore, meteorologists closely monitor the MJO to improve monsoon forecasts and assess the likelihood of heavy rainfall or prolonged dry spells.
• The influence of the MJO is not limited to the Indian monsoon. It also plays a major role in the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones over the Indian Ocean, the Pacific Ocean, and even parts of the Atlantic Ocean.
• During its active phase, the atmosphere becomes more unstable, humidity increases, and vertical wind conditions become more favourable for cyclone development. As a result, periods of increased cyclone activity often coincide with the passage of the active MJO phase.
• Apart from affecting tropical weather, the MJO also influences atmospheric circulation in higher latitudes through a process known as teleconnection.
• Changes in tropical convection caused by the MJO can alter jet stream patterns, influencing winter storms, cold waves, heat waves, and heavy rainfall events in regions far away from the tropics, including North America, Europe, and East Asia. Thus, despite being a tropical phenomenon, its impacts extend across the globe.
• The MJO is often confused with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, but the two are fundamentally different.
• The MJO is a moving atmospheric disturbance that travels continuously around the globe and lasts only a few weeks to a couple of months. ENSO, on the other hand, is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon centred over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and typically persists for several months to two years or more.
• While ENSO changes sea surface temperatures significantly, the MJO primarily affects atmospheric circulation and rainfall without producing major long-term changes in ocean temperatures.
• An easy way to understand the MJO is to imagine the tropical atmosphere as a giant circular race track. The active phase of the MJO resembles a moving cluster of rain-bearing clouds that travels steadily around this track, bringing heavy rainfall and thunderstorms wherever it passes.
• Behind this active phase follows the suppressed phase, which brings relatively dry and clear weather. This continuous movement creates alternating periods of wet and dry conditions across tropical regions

 

 

3. How does the Madden-Julian oscillation affect India?

 

 

• The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) has a significant influence on India's weather, particularly the Southwest Monsoon, tropical cyclones, and extreme rainfall events.
• Since the MJO is a moving region of enhanced and suppressed convection (thunderstorm activity), its position relative to India determines whether the country experiences increased rainfall or dry conditions.
• The MJO usually originates over the tropical Indian Ocean and moves eastward across the maritime continent and the Pacific Ocean. When the active phase of the MJO is located over the Indian Ocean and the region surrounding India, it strengthens the upward movement of warm, moist air.
• This leads to increased cloud formation, widespread thunderstorms, and heavy rainfall over many parts of the country. As a result, the southwest monsoon becomes more vigorous, producing active monsoon conditions and above-normal rainfall.
• On the other hand, when the suppressed phase of the MJO moves over the Indian Ocean, the atmosphere experiences downward movement of air, reducing cloud formation and rainfall.
• During this period, India often witnesses breaks in the monsoon, where rainfall decreases significantly for several days despite the monsoon season being in progress. Such breaks can affect agricultural activities by reducing soil moisture and delaying crop growth.
• The MJO also influences the onset and progress of the southwest monsoon. A strong active MJO phase over the Indian Ocean during late May or early June can support the timely onset and rapid advancement of the monsoon across the Indian subcontinent.
• Conversely, if the active phase is located far away over the Pacific Ocean during this period, the onset may be delayed or the monsoon may initially remain weak.
• Another important impact of the MJO is on extreme rainfall events. When its active phase coincides with other favourable weather systems such as low-pressure areas or monsoon depressions over the Bay of Bengal or the Arabian Sea, rainfall intensity can increase dramatically.
• This may result in widespread flooding, landslides in mountainous regions, and urban flooding in major cities. Many episodes of exceptionally heavy monsoon rainfall in India have been linked to a strong active phase of the MJO.
• The MJO also plays a crucial role in the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. During its active phase, the atmosphere becomes more unstable, humidity increases, and vertical wind conditions become more favourable for cyclone development.
• Consequently, the probability of cyclogenesis and cyclone intensification rises when the active MJO is present over the northern Indian Ocean. In contrast, the suppressed phase generally inhibits cyclone formation by creating less favourable atmospheric conditions.
• India's agricultural sector is particularly sensitive to the MJO because agriculture depends heavily on the distribution of monsoon rainfall.
• An active MJO phase can provide beneficial rainfall for crops such as rice, cotton, sugarcane, and pulses. However, if the rainfall becomes excessive, it may damage standing crops through flooding and waterlogging. Similarly, an extended suppressed phase can reduce rainfall, leading to moisture stress and lower agricultural productivity.
• The MJO also affects temperature patterns across India. During the active phase, increased cloud cover and rainfall generally reduce daytime temperatures and provide relief from heat. During the suppressed phase, clear skies allow greater solar heating, often resulting in hotter daytime conditions and, in some seasons, the development of heat waves.
• Meteorologists in India, especially at the India Meteorological Department, closely monitor the MJO because it is one of the most reliable indicators for extended-range weather forecasting.
• Since the MJO evolves over several weeks, it helps forecasters predict active and weak phases of the monsoon, the likelihood of heavy rainfall, and the potential for tropical cyclone formation about two to four weeks in advance.
• This information is valuable for agriculture, water resource management, disaster preparedness, and reservoir operations.

 

 

4. What is the difference between Madden-Julian oscillation and ENSO?

 

 

 

• The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are two of the most important climate phenomena affecting global weather.
• Although both originate in the tropical regions and influence rainfall, temperature, monsoons, and tropical cyclones, they differ significantly in their nature, duration, movement, and impacts.
• Understanding these differences is essential for interpreting weather and climate variations across the world.
• The Madden–Julian Oscillation is primarily an atmospheric phenomenon. It consists of a moving zone of enhanced and suppressed cloud formation and rainfall that travels eastward around the equator.
• The MJO originates over the tropical Indian Ocean and usually moves across the maritime continent, the tropical Pacific Ocean, and sometimes into the Atlantic Ocean. The complete cycle generally takes 30 to 60 days, making it an intra-seasonal weather phenomenon.
• In contrast, ENSO is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon. It develops due to changes in sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. ENSO has three phases: El Niño, La Niña, and the neutral phase.
• Unlike the MJO, ENSO does not move continuously around the globe. Instead, it remains centred over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and influences global climate through changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation.
• An ENSO event typically lasts 9 to 12 months, although some events may continue for nearly two years.
• Another major difference lies in the timescale. The MJO is a short-term oscillation that affects weather patterns over several weeks. Meteorologists use it to forecast rainfall, tropical cyclones, and monsoon activity two to four weeks in advance.
• ENSO, on the other hand, operates over much longer periods and is used for seasonal climate forecasting, helping predict rainfall and temperature anomalies several months ahead.
• The movement of these two phenomena also differs considerably. The MJO is a travelling disturbance that continuously propagates eastward around the equator.
• Wherever its active phase passes, it enhances cloud formation, thunderstorms, and rainfall, while the following suppressed phase brings drier conditions.
• ENSO does not travel in this manner. Instead, it represents large-scale warming (El Niño) or cooling (La Niña) of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, with atmospheric circulation adjusting to these ocean temperature changes.
• The influence of the two systems on the Indian monsoon is also different. A favourable active phase of the MJO over the Indian Ocean can strengthen the southwest monsoon for several weeks, leading to active monsoon spells and heavy rainfall.
• However, once the MJO moves away, its influence diminishes. ENSO affects the overall seasonal strength of the monsoon. During El Niño years, India often experiences weaker monsoon rainfall and an increased likelihood of drought, while La Niña years generally favour stronger monsoon rainfall and wetter-than-normal conditions.
• Although this relationship is not absolute, it remains one of the most important factors influencing India's seasonal rainfall.
• The MJO also has a strong influence on tropical cyclone formation because its active phase creates favourable atmospheric conditions for cyclone development over the Indian Ocean, western Pacific, and other tropical basins.
• ENSO also affects cyclone activity, but mainly by altering ocean temperatures and large-scale wind patterns over an entire cyclone season rather than over a few weeks.
• An important distinction is that the MJO is primarily driven by changes in atmospheric convection, whereas ENSO is driven by interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere, especially variations in sea surface temperatures and trade winds across the Pacific Ocean.
• Although they are different phenomena, the MJO and ENSO can interact with each other. For example, repeated strong MJO events can sometimes influence the evolution of El Niño or La Niña conditions by affecting westerly wind bursts over the Pacific Ocean.
• Similarly, the background conditions created by ENSO can modify the strength and behaviour of the MJO.

 

5. Why is the Southwest Monsoon critical for Kharif agriculture in India?

 

 

• The Southwest Monsoon is the backbone of India's agricultural economy and plays a decisive role in the success of the Kharif cropping season. Kharif crops are sown with the onset of the monsoon, generally during June and July, and harvested between September and October.
• Since a large proportion of India's cultivated land is still dependent on rainfall rather than irrigation, the timing, amount, and distribution of monsoon rainfall directly determine agricultural productivity, food security, and rural livelihoods.
• The southwest monsoon provides nearly 70–75% of India's annual rainfall, making it the primary source of water for agriculture.
• As the monsoon winds reach the Indian subcontinent from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, they bring widespread rainfall across most parts of the country.
• This rainfall replenishes soil moisture, enabling farmers to prepare fields and sow Kharif crops such as rice, maize, cotton, soybean, groundnut, millets, pulses, and sugarcane.
• The onset of the southwest monsoon marks the beginning of the Kharif agricultural season.
• A timely arrival allows farmers to sow seeds at the optimum time, ensuring proper germination and healthy crop establishment. If the monsoon is delayed, sowing operations are postponed, shortening the growing season and often reducing crop yields. In severe cases, farmers may have to shift to short-duration or drought-resistant crop varieties.
• Apart from the onset, the distribution of rainfall throughout the season is equally important. Crops require water at different stages of growth, including germination, vegetative growth, flowering, and grain filling.
• Well-distributed rainfall ensures a continuous supply of moisture during these critical stages.
• However, prolonged dry spells or breaks in the monsoon can lead to moisture stress, poor plant growth, and lower productivity.
• Conversely, excessive rainfall within a short period can cause waterlogging, flooding, and root damage, affecting crop health and yield.
• The southwest monsoon is particularly important because nearly half of India's net sown area remains rain-fed, despite significant expansion of irrigation facilities. Farmers in these regions rely almost entirely on monsoon rainfall.
• Consequently, a good monsoon generally leads to higher agricultural production, while a weak or deficient monsoon often results in drought, crop failure, and financial distress among farming communities.
• Monsoon rainfall also replenishes reservoirs, lakes, rivers, ponds, and groundwater aquifers, which provide irrigation water during the later stages of the Kharif season and for the subsequent Rabi cropping season. Adequate reservoir storage ensures sufficient water availability for irrigation, drinking water, hydropower generation, and industrial use throughout the year.
• The performance of the Kharif season has a significant impact on India's food security. Crops such as rice and pulses constitute staple food items for millions of people.
• A successful monsoon leads to higher food grain production, improved food availability, and stable market supplies. In contrast, poor monsoon performance may reduce agricultural output, creating supply shortages and increasing dependence on buffer stocks or imports.
• The southwest monsoon also influences the Indian economy. Agriculture supports a substantial share of the country's population, particularly in rural areas. A normal monsoon generally increases farm incomes, boosts rural demand for goods and services, and supports overall economic growth.
• Conversely, a deficient or erratic monsoon can reduce agricultural income, lower rural consumption, and adversely affect sectors such as fertilizers, farm machinery, consumer goods, and banking.
• The monsoon has an important bearing on inflation, especially food inflation. Good rainfall usually leads to abundant production of cereals, vegetables, fruits, and pulses, helping stabilize food prices. On the other hand, deficient rainfall often reduces agricultural output, leading to higher food prices and contributing to overall inflationary pressures in the economy.
• The southwest monsoon also supports allied activities such as animal husbandry, fisheries, and horticulture. Adequate rainfall improves pasture availability for livestock, replenishes ponds used in inland fisheries, and provides favourable conditions for the cultivation of fruits, vegetables, and plantation crops. Thus, its benefits extend well beyond crop production.

 

6. Way Forward

 

 

An IMD bulletin on Wednesday forecast low to moderate rainfall activity in the areas covered by the monsoon — which is only around half of the country’s landmass. Around this time in June, the monsoon normally covers almost the entire country.

 

 

For Prelims: Indian and World Geography   For Mains: eneral Studies I: Important Geophysical phenomena such as earthquakes, Tsunami, Volcanic activity, cyclone etc

 

 

Previous Year Questions   1.With reference to Ocean Mean Temperature (OMT), which of the following statements is/are correct? (UPSC CSE, 2020) 1. OMT is measured up to a depth of 26ºC isotherm which is 129 meters in the south-western Indian Ocean during January-March. 2. OMT collected during January-March can be used in assessing whether the amount of rainfall in monsoon will be less or more than a certain long-term mean. Select the correct answer using the code given below: (a) 1 only (b) 2 only (c) Both 1 and 2 (d) Neither 1 nor 2   Answer (b)

 

Source: Indianexpress